19 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Indiabulls Housing Finance
BSE SENSEX
28,262
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
S&P CNX
8,551
IHFL IN
355.1
CMP: INR572
n
TP: INR738 (29%)
Buy
Business momentum healthy; spreads and asset quality stable
Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL) reported PAT growth of 21% YoY (+6.7% QoQ) to
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 203.1/3.3
INR4.8b (in line with est.). Healthy AUM growth of +23% YoY, strong disbursement
52-Week Range (INR)
580/188
growth of +71% YoY (+11% QoQ) and stable book spreads of 340bp were the key
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
23/43/122
highlights of the quarter.
Avg Val (INR m)/Vol ‘000 358/956
n
Healthy pick-up in disbursements at INR53.5b, grew +71% YoY and 11% QoQ, led
Free float (%)
72.2
to +23% AUM growth at INR480.8b. The overall AUM mix skewed slightly in favor
of mortgages (76% share v/s 73% in 3QFY14), with the share of corporate being
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
stable at 21%.
Y/E March 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Fin inc
23.5
28.5
35.3
n
GNPAs percentage remained steady at 0.86% and NNPAs at 0.34% respectively.
Provisions of INR740m during the quarter were towards accelerated writeoffs and
PPP
27.8
33.5
41.3
did not include any specific account.
EPS (INR)
54.2
64.2
79.0
EPS Gr. (%)
15.8
18.4
23.2
n
Other highlights:
a) book spreads of 340bp and incremental spreads of 310bp
BV/Sh.
were stable QoQ, b) IHFL’s cumulative disbursements till date reached INR1t, c)
189
215
246
( )on
RoA
INR650m debited from net worth for outstanding ZCB, d) securitized assets worth
3.6
3.7
3.7
(%)
RoE (%)
30.7
32.4
34.3
INR7b during the quarter, e) bond issuance contributed 43% of incremental
Payout (%)
71.4
60.8
60.8
borrowings, f) opex includes INR150m towards CSR expenses.
Valuations
n
Valuation and view:
IHFL has transformed from a diversified lender to a focused
P/E (x)
10.6
8.9
7.2
mortgage player. Mortgage focus has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving
P/BV (x)
3.0
2.7
2.3
from 3%/0.8% in FY09 to 30%/3.7% in 9MFY15. Focus on mortgage and market
P/BV (x)
3.0
2.7
2.3
share gains will drive AUM growth of ~23% for the next three years. Lowest
Div. Yld (%)
5.8
5.8
7.2
levered HFC (6.1x) to support growth without dilution. Asset quality trend to
remain stable. Improved borrowing profile, better credit rating and liquidity buffer
will aid the company maintain healthy spreads. IHFL offers superior return ratios
with +6% dividend yield. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR738 (3x FY17E BV).
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.