19 January 2015
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Symphony
BSE SENSEX
28,262
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,551
SYML IN
35.0
78.1/1.3
2,255/401
10/92/425
38/36
25.0
CMP: INR2,231
TP: INR2,100 (-6%)
Neutral
Revenue and PAT post marginal miss, EBITDA margin expansion robust
Symphony (SYML) posted a revenue of INR1.51b (est. INR1.55b) in 2QFY15, compared
to INR1.15b in 2QFY14, marking a YoY growth of 31.4%. During the quarter, company
witnessed 27.4% volume growth with total volumes aggregating to 2.4 lakh coolers,
while realizations grew 1.5% YoY from INR6,183/unit to INR6,277/unit. Domestic
revenue grew by 33.5% YoY to INR1.40b, while exports grew 10% YoY to INR113m.
EBITDA grew by 54.8% this quarter to INR481m, EBITDA margin stood at 31.7% in
2QFY15, compared to 26.9% in 2QFY14 (an expansion of 480bp YoY), largely on
account of better sales mix, softening of commodity prices and higher economies of
scale. Hence, PAT for 2QFY15 stood at INR360m (est. INR380m), compared to
INR247m in 2QFY14, marking a YoY growth of 46%.
Replicating asset light business model in Impco business:
Management is exploring
the possibility of outsourced manufacturing for Impco, with an aim to make the
business asset light, similar to its India operations. Further, management plans to
monetize Impco assets like plant and machinery and real estate, resulting in proceeds
of ~INR0.4b. We believe re-modeling of Impco into an asset light model will ensure
focus on R&D, marketing and product development activities thus resulting in superior
performance of the business. Also, Impco too could turn into a high RoCE and scalable
business, similar to domestic operations.
Valuation and view:
We raise FY15E, FY16E and FY17E earnings estimates by 5%, 11%
and 22% to reflect higher margins led by new product innovations. Given its leadership
with 50% market share, asset light business model (~72% RoCE), huge growth
opportunity in air coolers due to 8% penetration and expected shift from unorganized
(80% of market) to organized, we believe SYML deserves premium multiple of 25x
FY17E EPS, against its five-year average multiple of 15x one-year forward. We value
the stock at 25x FY17E EPS and arrive at a target price of INR2,100. Maintain
Neutral.
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E JUN
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
Div. Yld (%)
EV/Sales (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
7.1
1.9
1.5
43.5
43.1
100.1
48.6
65.7
51.1
51.3
22.3
40.0
0.9
11.0
9.2
2.8
2.2
61.9
42.4
129.3
54.0
73.0
52.9
36.0
17.3
27.6
1.3
8.3
12.0
3.8
2.9
84.3
36.2
169.1
56.5
76.4
52.7
26.5
13.2
19.8
1.7
6.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
22%
50%
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.