28 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
Amara Raja Batteries
BSE SENSEX
29,559
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
S&P CNX
8,914
AMRJ IN
170.8
946/321
CMP: INR915
TP: INR1,093 (+19%)
Buy
In-line performance; new capacities, weak lead prices to drive performance
FY16 onwards
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 156.3/2.5
AMRJ’s performance was in line with EBITDA/PAT of ~INR1.8b/1b, despite higher
other expenses. FY16 is an inflection year for AMRJ, with significant new capacities
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
3/73/128
driving revenue growth (~23% CAGR) and benign lead prices driving margins (+250bp
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol ‘000 173/309
by FY17E), translating into ~34% EPS CAGR (FY15E-17E) after a muted FY15. Stable
Free float (%)
47.9
competitive environment, significant FCF generation (~INR7b over FY16E-17E) and
improving RoE (4pp by FY17E to ~31%), coupled with potential shift from unorganized
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
to organized players, due to GST, would continue to drive re-rating of the stock.
y/e MAR
2015E 2016E 2017E
7,246
4,131
24.2
11.6
98.7
27.1
37.8
37.8
9.3
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.INR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
42,288 52,893 63,315
9,617 12,383
5,481
32.1
32.7
123.8
28.8
40.7
28.5
7.4
7,468
43.7
36.3
158.0
31.0
44.1
20.9
5.8
Net sales grew 23.6% YoY (+0.1% QoQ) to INR10.7b (est. INR10.2b), driven by
telecom (~29% YoY) and replacement segment (~20% YoY).
RM cost declined by 40bp YoY (-80bp QoQ) to 65.2% on account of favorable mix
and stable lead price (in INR terms).
Other expenses were higher at 13.3% of sales (+90bp/+110bp YoY/QoQ v/s est.
12%), due to higher marketing spend and higher CSR spend.
EBITDA margin declined 50bp YoY/QoQ at 16.9% (v/s est. 17.7%) for 3QFY15.
However, EBITDA at ~INR1.8b (in-line) grew by 20% YoY (-3% QoQ).
PAT grew by 7.7% YoY (2.1% QoQ) to INR1b (v/s est. INR0.98b).
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
11%
39%
Takeaways from management interaction:
a) Lead prices for 3QFY15 for the company
stood at ~INR121/kg (v/s INR121/kg in 2QFY15), almost flat QoQ, b) capacity
expansion is on track, with four-wheeler battery plant to be operational by end of
current quarter and two-wheeler battery plant by April-May 2015, c) capex of ~INR4b
each for FY15 and FY16 and d) excise duty hike of 2% passed on to customers.
Valuation and view:
We raise FY16E/17E EPS estimates by ~6%/11% to ~INR32/44 to
factor the strong revenue growth and benign lead prices. We value AMRJ at ~25x
FY17E EPS (v/s 20x earlier) to factor the increased visibility of superior competitive
positioning and capital efficiencies. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of ~INR1,093.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jay Shah
(Jay.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.