30 January 2015
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Capital Goods
Siemens
BSE SENSEX
29,183
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,809
SIEM IN
356.1
370.4/6
1,083/512
10/5/31
323/389
25.0
CMP: INR1,040
TP: INR930 (-11%)
Sell
Operating performance above estimates, Material costs at lowest levels in
past 10-12 years supported by sharp EUR depreciation
n
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E SEP
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
AdjEPS(INR)
EPS Gr (%)
BV/Sh(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
119.5
8.5
73.4
7.3
55.6
6.8
2014 2015E 2016E
106.6 112.2
5.9
3.1
8.7
82.5
7.4
8.3
9.1
5.0
14.2
62.8
10.6
11.7
128.9
11.1
6.7
18.7
31.9
152.8
12.6
13.7
n
n
122.9 143.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
64%
n
Operating performance above expectation:
SIEM’s 1QFY15 operating
performance have been above estimates, with adjusted revenues at INR23.2b
(down 1.9% YoY) vs estimates of INR23.8b, Adj EBIDTA margins at 8.6% (up
309bp YoY) vs estimates of 6.9% and adj net profit of INR1.1b (up 63% YoY) vs
estimates of INR538m. Exceptional gain pertains to sale of Metal Technologies
business to VAI Metals (Post tax gains at INR5.3b).
Material costs at lowest levels in past 10-12 years supported by sharp EUR
depreciation:
Importantly, material costs for SIEM has declined to just 65.5% in
1QFY15 and is at the lowest levels in the past 10-12 years. We believe that this
is possibly supported by the sharp appreciation of 8% in INR vs EUR in the last
one year. Sustainability of the same will be keenly monitored. For SIEM, Raw
Material imports in FY14 comprised of 55% of the total RM costs, and of this,
~82% was procured from SIEM AG / Group companies; thus the company has
strong leverage to currency volatility. Also, staff cost at INR3.3b are lower by
2.3%; during September 2014, employees stood at 10,933 vs 11,469 YoY.
Order inflows stable; book-to-bill at 1.2x:
Order intake for the quarter stood at
INR20.9b vs INR20.1b in 1QFY14, stable YoY. For FY14 order intake was at
INR103.2b vs INR109.6b in FY13, declining by 6% on YoY basis. Book to Bill has
remained stable at 1.2x.
Valuations at premium; maintain Sell:
At the CMP, SIEM trades at 73x / 56x its
FY15E / FY16E EPS of INR14.2/18.7. Given the premium valuations, we maintain
Sell
rating with revised TP of INR930 (we shift to DCF based valuation).
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
/ Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.