3 February 2014
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Shree Cement
BSE SENSEX
29,000
Bloomberg
S&P CNX
8,757
SRCM IN
CMP: INR10,836
TP: INR12,272 (+13%)
Buy
Equity Shares (m)
34.8
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD
200.0/3.3
b)
52-Week Range (INR) 11755/4234
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E June
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj EPS
EPS Gr. %)
BV/Sh .INR
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton.USD
2015E 2016E 2017E
68.4
16.2
6.9
199.0
-10.4
1,522
13.8
14.3
54.7
7.2
23.0
275
85.7 106.2
23.8
11.2
61.3
19.3
21.2
34.0
6.0
15.1
242
33.8
19.4
73.2
26.9
31.8
19.6
4.7
10.0
230
12/33/103
134/18
35.2
EBITDA below est. on lower volume and increase in freight cost; strong
quarter for merchant power
Volume-led revenue miss in cement:
SRCM’s 2QFY15 revenue grew 17% YoY
(-3.9% QoQ) to INR15.4b v/s estimate of INR16b. Cement revenue stood at
INR13.5b, +14% YoY (v/s est. of INR14.5b). This was led by lower volume growth of
11% YoY to 3.81mt (-1.7% QoQ) v/s estimate of 4.1mt (19.9% YoY), while
realizations fell 3% QoQ (+3.2% YoY) to INR3,540/ton (in-line).
Freight cost push and lower fixed cost absorption dent profitability:
EBITDA grew
12.7% YoY (-10% QoQ) to INR3b (v/s est. of INR3.3b), translating into margin of
19.7% (-1.3pp QoQ, -0.8pp YoY). Cement EBITDA/ton stood at INR715 (-INR101
QoQ, flat YoY) v/s estimate of INR759, led by ~2% higher cost on account of
increased freight cost (overloading restrictions in Rajasthan) and lesser absorption
of fixed cost (lower volume). Lower depreciation and prior period tax reversal
boost PAT at INR945m, -20% YoY (v/s est. of INR561m).
Strong quarter for merchant power:
Merchant power revenue was up 40% YoY
(1% QoQ) to INR1.9b led by 20% YoY (flat QoQ) volume growth to 491units and
QoQ flat realizations of INR3.92/unit (+16% YoY). EBITDA stood at ~INR309m,
translating into EBITDA/unit at INR0.63 (v/s INR0.4 in 1QFY15, INR0.6 in 2QFY14).
Cut FY16E/17E EPS by ~6%:
We cut FY16E/17E EPS by ~6% to factor (1) lower
cement volume growth of 13% in FY15E (v/s earlier 18%), (2) lower realization
growth of INR300/ton YoY in FY16E (v/s earlier est. of INR400/ton) and (3) higher
power volume and realizations. We raise FY15E EPS by 24% to factor for the lower
depreciation. This translates into FY15E/16E/17E cement EBITDA/ton of
INR1,006/1,232/1,519.
Valuation and view:
The stock trades at 15.1x/10x EV/EBITDA on FY16E/17E
and EV of USD230/ton FY17E (adjusting for merchant power assets of ~400mw).
Maintain
Buy
with an SOTP-based target price of INR12,272 (EV at USD260/ton
and implied 11.3x FY17E EV/EBITDA).
321.0 555.8
1,808 2,323
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
6%
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.