3 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Utilities
JSW Energy
BSE SENSEX
29,000
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,757
JSW IN
1,640.1
126/42
18/52/140
25
n
CMP: INR113
n
TP: INR105 (-7%)
Neutral
EBIDTA above estimate, PAT in-line; Upgrade estimate, target price
3QFY15 PAT in-line:
JSW Energy reported consolidated net profit of INR3.8b, in-
line with our estimate. However, EBIDTA for the quarter stood 14% higher than
estimate (INR9.7b, vs est of INR8.6b) aided by higher ST prices, marginally lower
fuel cost vs estimate and savings in operating cost. Higher interest cost, tax rate
and lower other income however negated the gain.
Fuel cost taper off QoQ, RB index remain soft:
RB Index (Richard Bay’s Index)
remained soft and 3QFY15 average stood at USD66/ton, lower than USD70/ton
QoQ. Over the past two months, the average stood at USD62/ton. JSWEL
benefited owing to benign coal prices and fuel cost stood at INR2.64/unit, down
from INR2.91/unit YoY and INR2.72/unit QoQ. This was also INR0.90/unit lower
than our estimate. We already factor current RB index as average for FY16/17E.
Key takeaways from concall:
a) ST realization guidance range maintained at
INR4.25-4.50/unit, b) takeover of hydro assets from JPVL to be over by 1QFY16E,
c) Buyer’s credit exposure at USD175m, d) Barmer mine fully geared for 7mtpa
production and e) JSWEL’s board has sought shareholder approval to raise
INR50b to funds inorganic growth/expansion plans, and further approval to invest
upto INR75b in equity of any body corporate.
Valuations and view:
We upgrade our FY15/16E earnings for JSWEL by 6/13%,
respectively to assume benefit of low coal cost, higher ST price and opex cost
savings. We expect JSWEL to report net profit of INR15b in FY15E (up 45% YoY),
and INR14b in FY16E (down 7% YoY). Stock trades at PER of 12.9x and P/B of 1.9x
(RoE of 16%) on FY17E basis. We upgrade our TP to INR105/sh, re-iterate
Neutral.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 185.3/3.0
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 245/3,067
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj.EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
95.8
37.6
15.0
9.1
44.9
46.7
21.1
19.8
12.4
2.4
101.5
45.1
13.9
8.5
-7.1
52.8
17.1
18.4
13.3
2.1
96.4
42.1
14.3
8.7
2.9
59.0
15.6
14.6
12.9
1.9
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
6/13%
21%
n
Nalin Bhatt
(NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5429
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.