Sector Update | 4 February 2015
Technology
CTSH 4QCY14: Outlook of 14.5% CY15 CC organic growth
Could mean low-teens growth outlook by NASSCOM for FY16
4QCY14 organic revenue ahead of guidance:
CTSH’s 4QCY14 revenue grew 6.2%
QoQ to USD2.74b. This included ~USD81m from integration of TriZetto acquisition.
Excluding the same, organic revenue grew 4.2% QoQ in constant currency and 3.1%
after 110bp impact from cross currency, bettering the guidance of 1.1-2.3% QoQ.
Full year revenues grew 16.1% to USD10.26b. Excluding TriZetto, organic revenue
growth was 15.1%.
CY15 guidance of 14.5% CC organic revenue growth:
CTSH guided for CY15 revenue
growth of ‘at least’ 19%. However, adjusting for mid-single digit growth of the
acquired entity TriZetto, organic growth guidance translates to ~12.5%. This embeds
~2pp adverse impact from depreciation of global currencies. That implies organic
constant currency revenue growth guidance for CY15 of at least ~14.5%.
Flat-to-modestly-up IT budgets:
CTSH not seeing budgets declining on an overall
basis. Client budgets are flat-to-marginally up overall – in line with Gartner’s
prediction of ~2.5% increase. However, there is a clear shift within budgets.
Pressure on organizations is to get more done despite the modest increases by
driving efficiencies and effectiveness. The savings are increasingly getting invested
towards running different.
Europe macro concern is an opportunity:
The concern around macro situation in
Europe is catalyzing the environment for traditional outsourcing. Window for
outsourcing is very active right now, and the structural shift towards traditional and
multi-service large deals continues.
Low-teens growth outlook for FY16 by NASSCOM?
For FY15, NASSCOM had guided
for 13-15% growth at the beginning of the year, which was 2pp below CTSH’s
organic growth guidance of at least 16%. The gap has come down over the years.
Sticking to the trend of last couple of years would hint at low-teens FY16 CC growth
outlook for Indian IT by NASSCOM. While that does not make a case for significant
upsides, differences in execution / valuation continue to drive our bottom-up
approach to stock preferences. We prefer HCLT, INFO and TECHM in tier-I IT.
Exhibit 1: Comparative Valuation
Company
TCS
Infosys
Wipro
HCL Tech
TechM
Cognizant
Tier-I Agg
Mkt cap Rating TP (INR) Upside
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
RoE (%)
(USD b)
(%)
FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E
79.6 Neutral 2650
5.4
108.4 125.8 147.2 23.2
20.0
17.1
35.2
34.0
39.6
Buy
2500
16.7
108.7 120.1 137.8 19.7
17.8
15.5
26.2
24.8
24.6 Neutral
640
3.6
35.0
37.8
42.6
17.7
16.3
14.5
24.8
24.3
21.7
Buy
2150
13.1
105.5 117.0 132.5 18.0
16.2
14.3
33.3
30.7
10.8
Buy
3200
12.1
132.3 168.2 199.9 21.6
17.0
14.3
27.4
27.2
33.7 Not Rated
2.3
3.3
4.0
23.5
16.5
13.8
20.7
23.3
209.9
20.6
17.3 14.9
27.9
27.4
FY17E
32.7
24.6
23.1
29.2
26.3
22.3
26.4
Source: Company, MOSL
FY15-17E CAGR (%)
USD rev. EPS
13.7
16.5
12.3
12.6
11.4
10.3
14.4
12.0
21.2
22.9
21.8
30.5
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
4 February 2015
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Sector Update | 4 February 2015
Guidance: CY15 guidance of 14.5% CC organic revenue growth
CTSH guided for CY15 revenue growth of ‘at least’ 19%. However, adjusting the
revenue base and growth of the acquired entity TriZetto, as per our analysis to
organic growth guidance translates to 12.5%. This embeds ~2pp adverse impact
of currencies.
So, organic constant currency revenue growth guidance for CY15
should be at least 14.5%.
For 1QCY15, CTSH guided for ‘at least’ USD2.88b revenues, implying 5.0% QoQ
growth. Excluding revenues from TriZetto, this implies only ~1.25% QoQ organic
growth. We believe the weakness is due to seasonally weak 1Q as well as
currency movements.
This implies a CQGR of 3.9% for the remainder of the
year to meet the outlook.
CTSH 2Q-4Q CQGR of 3.9% is below its history of 4.1-6.8% 2Q-4Q CQGR
guidance considering Trizetto acquisition is expected to grow in mid single digits
in CY15. The company has also built in risk adjustments for the guidance this
year post its downward revision of guidance in CY14.
Exhibit 2: Implied CQGR post 1Q substantiates comments of risk adjustments built into the guidance
Growth Comparison
1Q G
QoQ growth (%)
6.3
CY10
2Q-4Q
CQGR
10.9
CY11
2Q-4Q
1Q G
CQGR
4.6
6.7
1Q G
2.9
CY12
2Q-4Q
CQGR
4.4
1Q G
3.7
CY13
2Q-4Q
CQGR
5.2
1Q G
2.8
CY14
2Q-4Q
CQGR
4.2
CY15
Implied
1Q G
2Q-4Q CQGR
5.0
3.9
Source: Company, MOSL
Takeaways for Indian IT
Guidance – what it means for possible growth in industry exports:
Adjusting
for revenues from TriZetto and impact from currency movements, CTSH’s
guidance of 14.5% YoY organic constant currency revenue growth in CY15 is
similar to that in CY14. NASSCOM guided for 13-15% growth at the beginning of
the year, which compared with CTSH’s organic growth guidance of at least 16%.
The gap has come down over the years, and was only 4pp in CY13 as well.
Sticking to the trend of last couple of years hints at low-teens growth outlook in
constant currency for Indian IT in FY16 by NASSCOM.
Exhibit 3: Expect low teens CC growth outlook by NASSCOM
Guidance
Year
FY09/CY08
FY10/CY09
FY11/CY10
FY12/CY11
FY13/CY12
FY14/CY13
FY15/CY14
FY16E/CY15
Nasscom midpoint
22.50%
5.50%
14.50%
17.00%
12.50%
13.00%
14.00%
?
CTSH
38.00%
10.00%
25.00%
26.00%
23.00%
17.00%
16.00%
14.50%
Source: Company, MOSL
Difference (pp)
15.5
4.5
10.5
9
10.5
4
2
While that does not make a case for significant upsides, differences in execution
/ valuation continue to drive our bottom-up approach to stock preferences.
No major alarms around the macro:
The beginning of the year offered multiple
variables to stay cautious – oil price declines, Europe macro concerns,
2
4 February 2015

Sector Update | 4 February 2015
uncertainty on spends by Banking and mixed data around holiday season sales
for US Retailers. But the commentary of the industry players thus far has been
positive, and CTSH’s guidance of similar growth YoY was compounded by the
fact that its commentary did not particularly cite adverse impact from any of the
developments.
Partaking in the significant shifts:
Overall, the readiness of traditional service
vendors has come into question amid the significant transformation being
brought about by Digital. Not only are the sizes of engagements small, the
projects are also exposed to a much larger and fragmented provider market.
However, low-to-mid teens growth will suggest that the industry is not losing
relevance in the current scheme of things. Spending by Enterprises to get
Digitally transformed is a trend that will likely play out for the next many years,
and it is extremely essential that the industry partakes in the same, while
traditional services in their current shape will be rendered obsolete. Growth in
the near-to-medium term will be an indicator of whether that is happening.
Exhibit 4: Comparative Valuation
Mkt cap Rating TP (INR) Upside
EPS (INR)
P/E (x)
(USD b)
(%)
FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E
TCS
79.6 Neutral 2650
5.4
108.4 125.8 147.2 23.2 20.0
Infosys
39.6
Buy
2500
16.7
108.7 120.1 137.8 19.7 17.8
Wipro
24.6 Neutral 640
3.6
35.0 37.8 42.6 17.7 16.3
HCL Tech
21.7
Buy
2150
13.1
105.5 117.0 132.5 18.0 16.2
TechM
10.8
Buy
3200
12.1
132.3 168.2 199.9 21.6 17.0
Cognizant
33.7 Not Rated
2.3
3.3
4.0
23.5 16.5
Tier-I Agg
209.9
20.6 17.3
Mphasis
1.2
Neutral 390
12.5
31.4 35.9 39.7 11.0
9.6
Mindtree
1.6
Neutral 1300
-1.3
66.5 80.4 95.2 19.8 16.4
KPIT Tech
0.6
Neutral 220
-0.6
13.2 17.4 20.8 16.8 12.7
Hexaware
1.0
Sell
180
-23.1
11.0 14.1 15.9 21.3 16.6
NIIT Tech
0.3
Neutral 400
14.7
30.9 37.3 43.6 11.3
9.3
Persistent Sys. 1.0
Neutral 1700
1.3
73.5 91.6 112.7 22.8 18.3
Tier-II Agg
5.7
17.2 13.8
Company
FY17E FY15E
17.1 35.2
15.5 26.2
14.5 24.8
14.3 33.3
14.3 27.4
13.8 20.7
14.9 27.9
8.7
12.5
13.8 30.4
10.7 20.3
14.7 26.5
8.0
13.6
14.9 22.3
11.8 20.9
RoE (%)
FY16E
34.0
24.8
24.3
30.7
27.2
23.3
27.4
13.5
29.7
23.2
31.1
14.9
23.7
22.7
FY17E
32.7
24.6
23.1
29.2
26.3
22.3
26.4
14.1
6.5
12.4
28.7
18.1
19.6
22.1
13.2
25.6
31.1
14.8
20.5
18.4
11.2
18.7
24.5
19.2
23.8
23.2
Source: Company, MOSL
FY15-17E CAGR (%)
USD rev. EPS
13.7
16.5
12.3
12.6
11.4
10.3
14.4
12.0
21.2
22.9
21.8
30.5
Takeaways from Management commentary
IT budgets:
CTSH not seeing budgets declining on an overall basis. Client
budgets are flat-to-marginally up overall – in line with Gartner’s prediction of
~2.5% increase. However, there is a clear shift within budgets. Pressure on
organizations is to get more done despite the modest increases - drive
efficiencies and effectiveness. The savings are increasingly getting invested
towards running different.
Europe:
Pipeline of deal in Europe is healthy. The concerns around the macro is
catalyzing the environment for traditional outsourcing is being catalyzed.
Window for outsourcing is very active right now, and the structural shift
towards traditional and multi-service large deals continues.
BFSI:
Insurance is seeing traction with end-to-end managed services. In the
banking space, spend is dominated by vendor consolidation, cost optimization,
regulatory compliance, real time risk monitoring and fraud analytics.
Regulations and compliance-driven spending was more intense last year. It has
become stable and may not increase as a % of budgets. Positive shift more
towards innovation and growth.
3
4 February 2015

Sector Update | 4 February 2015
Guidance factors CY14-like risk:
CTSH had to cut its revenue outlook in 2QCY14
on the back of client specific issues. In order to ensure that the company does
not end up in a similar situation as last year, its CY15 guidance builds meaningful
risk adjustments.
Digital:
In transformational deals, CTSH is witnessing components of Digital in
over 60% of the pipeline. There is a three-pronged focus of Digital spend – [1]
Enhancing customer experience, [2] Simplifying and improving the efficiency of
processes like Supply Chain Management, and [3] transforming underlying
technologies.
4QCY14: Organic revenue ahead of guidance
CTSH’s 4QCY14 revenue grew 6.2% QoQ to USD2.74b, This included USD81m
from integration of TriZetto acquisition. Excluding the same, organic revenue
grew 3.1% QoQ, ahead of guidance of 1.1-2.3% QoQ. Constant currency organic
growth was 4.2% QoQ. Full year revenues grew 16.1% to USD10.26b. Excluding
TriZetto contribution, organic revenue growth was 15.1%.
Exhibit 5: Constant currency organic USD revenue growth was 4.2% QoQ
Revenue (USD M)
QoQ growth (%)
8.3
4.6
7.8
3.9
4.9
2.9
5.4
3.0
3.7
7.0
6.7
3.9
2.5
6.2
2.2
2.8
Source: MOSL, Company
EBITDA margin for the quarter was 19.7%, +10bp QoQ, higher than our estimate
of 19.3%. Gross profit margin expanded 100bp QoQ to 40.2% (v/s our estimate
of 38.3%) and SGA was 20.5% (+90bp QoQ v/s our estimate of 19%).
GAAP EPS during the quarter was USD0.59, above its guidance of USD0.56.
Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin expansion was limited by higher expenses of TriZettto merger
and low utilization
EBITDA margin
21.9
20.6
22.1
SGA as % of sales
20.3
20.9
20.6
20.3
20.4
20.2
21.7
19.5
20.8
19.2
21.0
19.1
20.8
20.0
21.2
19.2
19.6
19.6
20.5
19.7
20.5
Source: Company, MOSL
4 February 2015
4

Sector Update | 4 February 2015
Healthcare led growth at 17.9% QoQ due to USD81m contribution from Trizetto
excluding Trizetto Healthcare still grew the fastest at 5.5% QoQ, however YoY
growth is 12.7%. Among geographies, excluding Trizetto contribution North
America grew3.6% QoQ while growth in European region was pulled back by
4.4% of cross currency impact.
Exhibit 7: Insurance was strong in BFSI, Healthcare grew 5.5% Excluding Trizetto
contribution
Verticals
BFSI
Healthcare
Manufacturing /Retail /Logistics
Other
Total
Contribution
to Rev. (%)
40.9
28.2
19.5
11.5
100.0
Growth –
QoQ (%)
3.6
17.9
0.2
1.2
6.2
Contr to
incr. rev (%)
24.1
72.7
0.8
2.4
100.0
4Q
CQGR (%)
3.0
5.9
2.2
5.4
3.9
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 8: Europe was impacted by 4.4% of cross currency movement
Geographies
North America
UK
Rest of Europe
RoW
Contribution
to Rev. (%)
77.8
10.2
7.2
4.9
Growth –
QoQ (%)
7.7
0.6
0.7
4.5
Contr to
incr. rev (%)
94.6
1.0
0.8
3.5
4Q
CQGR (%)
4.1
3.2
1.8
5.2
Source: Company, MOSL
Other result highlights
Overall headcount increased by 11,500 to 211,500. Technical headcount
increased by 10,500 to 198,000.
Annualized attrition during the quarter was 14.5%, v/s 15.6% in 3QCY14
Onsite utilization was 92% (flat QoQ). Offshore utilization was 69% including
trainees (-400bp QQ) and 76% excluding trainees (-400bp QoQ).
The company’s strategic clients increased by 7 to 271.
DSO including unbilled days was down 6 days to 70 days post a change in
calculation methodology caused by Trizetto acquisition. Revenues from Fixed
Price contracts was up 100bp QoQ at 36%.
5
4 February 2015

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6