10 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
Nalco
BSE SENSEX
28,356
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,566
NACL IN
2,577.2
69/32
-5/-24/11
19.1
CMP: INR50
TP: INR87 (+74%)
Buy
Strong operating performance; valuations compelling
EBITDA grew 11% QoQ to INR5.25b, 5% ahead of our estimate on lower raw material
and seasonally lower coal cost, despite lower than expected alumina exports (at 280kt,
11% miss).
n
Sales down 4% on lower alumina volumes:
Net sales declined 4% QoQ to
INR19.1b, driven by lower alumina volumes. Alumina production was down 6%
QoQ to 460kt, but sales volumes declined 18% QoQ to 280kt, as the Hudhud
cyclone disrupted dispatches in mid-October. Aluminum sales grew 1% QoQ (5%
YoY) to 82kt. Alumina realization grew 2% QoQ to USD350/ton, while aluminum
realization was down 1% QoQ to USD2,515/ton.
n
Strong EBITDA performance on lower CoP:
Despite weak sales, EBITDA grew 11%
QoQ (1.5x YoY) to INR5.2b. Raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined
250bp QoQ, while power and fuel cost was down 50bp QoQ. Caustic soda and
carbon cost are declining. We believe seasonally lower coal cost drove EBITDA
beat.
n
Higher tax rate, depreciation dragged PAT growth:
PAT growth was slower at 4%
QoQ to INR3.5b (5% miss), driven by higher than expected tax rate (37% v/s our
estimate of 32%) and increase in depreciation cost (+12% QoQ).
n
Valuations compelling:
The stock is currently trading at an EV of 2.1x FY16E
EBITDA (LME at USD2,000/ton), which we believe is significantly cheap compared
to Metals peers. Even at spot LME aluminum of USD1,850/ton, the stock would
trade at 3.1x. We value NACL at INR87 (LME: USD2,000/ton, 75% upside). We
believe alumina prices will inch up, as China depletes bauxite inventories and start
boosting imports gradually over 2015 and 2016. LME prices too will be supported
by higher cost of production. Reiterate
Buy.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 128.9/2.1
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 163/2,983
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr(%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
77.3
18.7
14.1
5.5
107.7
50.7
11.2
15.7
9.2
3.3
86.3
22.8
17.3
6.7
22.8
55.7
12.6
17.4
7.5
2.1
88.3
23.0
17.4
6.7
0.5
60.7
11.6
16.1
7.4
1.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.