12 February 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Bajaj Electricals
BSE SENSEX
28,805
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
AvgVal(INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,712
BJE IN
100.0
22.2/0.4
385/191
-12/-30/-45
98/362
34.4
CMP: INR222
TP: INR300 (+35%
Buy
Results below expectations; E&P turnaround likely in FY16
Revenue declined 0.4% YoY to INR10.3b (our estimate: INR11.5b). EBITDA was
negative INR351m (our estimate: INR424m). EBITDA margin was -3.4% (our estimate:
3.7%) against 5.6% in 3QFY14. Lighting division margins were 4.6% against 5.2%,
Durables margins were 6.7% against 9.6%, while E&P margins were -26.2% against -
4.7%. PAT was -INR523m (our estimate: INR70m) against INR200m in 3QFY14.
Consumer and Lighting divisions report degrowth:
Lighting business degrew 6.2% YoY
to INR2.3b, while Consumer Durables degrew 2% to INR5.1b. While CFL lamps
continued to exert pressure on Lighting growth, the management is incrementally
focusing on introducing and promoting new LED products, which should offset CFL
business decline to some extent. We expect Lighting business to remain flat over FY15-
17. With the implementation of replenishment-based distribution structure, primary
sales for the Consumer division was impacted during the quarter, driving 2% YoY
degrowth. With 80% of the distribution transition likely in FY16, we expect meaningful
growth recovery in FY17 (15% growth in FY17 against 8% in FY16 and 4% in FY15).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
2015E 2016E 2017E
42.8
0.1
-0.8
-8.4
60.3
-12.8
-0.3
47.4
3.1
1.2
12.3
69.7
18.9
27.8
54.3
3.8
1.7
16.5
34.8
83.0
21.7
31.5
1,478 -246.4
E&P performance still under pressure, turnaround on track:
E&P revenue grew 8.9%
P/E (x)
-26.5
18.1
13.4
YoY to INR2.9b. During the quarter, BJE provided INR830m towards doubtful
P/BV (x)
3.7
3.2
2.7
receivables, which drove down margins to -26%. In 9MFY15, BJE has made provisions
of INR1.6b. With most legacy projects completed and most provisions for receivables
already made, the management expects a turnaround in FY16. We believe, with a
Estimate change
27%/14%
strong book of INR34.9b for E&P and concerted efforts by the management towards
TP change
timely execution, E&P turnaround is on track for FY16. We expect margins in the E&P
division to improve from -10% in FY15 to +5% in FY16.
Rating change
Valuation and view:
With expected delay in E&P turnaround along with worsening
growth and profitability in the core Lighting and Consumer business, we cut our EPS
estimates for FY16 and FY17 by 27% and 14%, respectively. Maintain
Buy.
Our target
price is INR300 (18x FY17E EPS of INR16.5).
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.