17 February 2015
Update | Sector: Cement
Ultratech Cement
BSE Sensex
29,136
S&P CNX
8,809
CMP: INR3,082
TP: INR3,505 (+14%)
Buy
Growth conviction, market share focus intact
Kotputli plant visit takeaways – high emphasis on operating standards
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
UTCEM IN
274.4
3,196/1,657
-3/5/42
845.7
13.7
We visited UTCEM’s cement plant at Kotputli (Rajasthan) and interacted with the
management, including CFO, Mr Atul Daga.
The 3.3mt plant is one of UTCEM’s most efficient, with better operating
parameters, strategic location to serve northern India markets, and high safety
and emission standards.
The management’s conviction in industry demand growth is intact. As are its
market share focus and ambition to gradually evolve into a complete building
solutions company.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Sales
235.4 279.0 329.7
EBITDA
43.0 64.8 85.7
NP
23.3 34.6 49.5
Adj EPS (INR) 85.0 126.2 180.4
EPS Gr. (%)
12.5 48.4 43.0
BV/Sh (INR) 696.0 809.4 972.3
RoE (%)
12.9 16.8 20.2
RoCE (%)
15.2 18.9 23.2
Payout (%)
13.7 10.1 9.7
Valuations
P/E (x)
36.3 24.4 17.1
P/BV (x)
4.4
3.8
3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.0 13.3 9.6
EV/Ton (USD) 225 210 200
Shareholding Pattern (%)
As on
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13
61.7
5.9
21.3
11.2
61.7
5.7
21.7
11.0
62.0
4.6
22.8
10.6
High emphasis on efficiencies, safety/emission standards
Kotputli (130km from Jaipur and 160km from Delhi) is one of UTCEM’s
newest (March 2009) integrated plants, with 3.3mt (10kt/day) of clinker and
3.1mt of in-situ grinding capacity, along with 2x23MW of power plant.
Other two split grinding units are located in Dadri, UP (210km) and Panipat,
Haryana (265km). These plants are located strategically and have reduced
lead distance meaningfully in the North, post commissioning.
The plant’s operating efficiencies are higher than the company average: (a)
power usage of 70-75kwh/t (average of ~79kwh/t in FY14), and (2) coal
usage (~100% pet coke) of 680kcal/t (average of 714kcal/t).
High emphasis on optimized plant management, safety standards and
emission parameters (bag house, et cetera) speak for better sustainability.
Industry growth conviction, market share focus intact
Notes:
FII incl. depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
UltraTech Cem.
Sensex - Rebased
3,400
2,900
2,400
1,900
1,400
The management’s conviction in medium-term demand growth is intact. It
expects 300kg of per capita consumption by 2021 (against 195kg now),
implying a CAGR of 8-9%.
Government programs to drive infrastructure spending are key
monitorables. Management expects demand growth normalcy by CY15. On
ground improvement is limited to few pockets viz. UP (a few road projects),
Pune, Haryana etc. Rural demand growth has flattened.
Focus on growth will remain intact, though the pace of the next round of
organic expansion (post 71mt of domestic capacity by FY16) will depend on
demand uptick in FY16. Acquisition of JP's MP plant will conclude by CY15.
Net debt-equity of <0.75x (0.5x post MP plant acquisitions) and net debt-
EBITDA of 1.5-2x (1.6x post MP plant acquisitions) are comfortable. UTCEM
is serious on coal block, but will be prudent while bidding.
Immediate likelihood of global foray has reduced, with recent acquisitions.
With largest capacity in white cement, putty, RMC in place, UTCEM's vision
is to gradually evolve into a complete building solutions company.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.