18 February 2015
4QCY14 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Ambuja Cements
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
29,320
8,869
Bloomberg
ACEM IN
Equity Shares (m)
1,549.8
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 417.7/6.7
52-Week Range (INR)
271/151
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
8/15/34
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 458/2,136
Free float (%)
49.7
n
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Dec
2014 2015E 2016E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
99.1 109.5 124.7
18.6 24.5 31.5
13.2 16.8 21.9
8.5
8.5 11.1
25.9 -0.8 30.9
65.6 95.9 101.4
13.4 11.5 11.2
18.7 16.9 16.3
22.4 22.6 17.3
2.9
2.0
1.9
12.5 14.8 11.4
126
197
189
CMP: INR270
n
TP: INR262 (-3%)
Neutral
EBITDA miss on lower volume and higher RM & employee cost; payout
improved to INR5/share; cutting CY15/16E EPS by 5-6%
Revenue miss by 3% on lower volume:
ACEM’s 4QCY14 net sales grew by 8.6%
YoY (-4% QoQ) to INR23.8b (v/s est of INR24.7b), led by lower volume growth.
Cement volume stood at 5.44mt (v/s est 5.5mt), 2.8% YoY (+13% QoQ).
Realizations de-grew 3.9% QoQ (+5.6%YoY) to INR4,374/ton (v/s est of
INR4,426/ton). Annual volume grew 2.5% YoY to 22.15mt.
Higher RM & employee cost negate freight benefits:
EBITDA grew 15% YoY (-12%
QoQ) to ~INR3.3b (v/s est ~IN4.1b), translating into EBITDA margin of 14% (-3.3pp
QoQ and +0.8pp YoY) v/s est of 16.8%. Cost was flat QoQ (+INR167/ton YoY) as
against expectation of 2% QoQ decline on the back of lower input cost viz. coal
and diesel prices. While there has been 10%/4% QoQ drop in freight/energy cost,
higher employee and RM cost negated the benefits.
Tax write-back boosts PAT:
EBITDA/ton improved INR65 YoY (-INR371 QoQ) to
INR611 (v/s est ~INR742). PAT stood at INR3.3b (v/s est of INR2.8b), boosted by
prior period tax write back.
Higher payout of INR5/share; No major capacity addition in foreseeable future:
ACEM declared dividend of INR5/share (with interim of INR1.8/share and final of
INR3.2/share) v/s INR3.6/share in CY13. In the context of global merger between
Holcim and Lafarge, immediate capacity addition is limited barring Sankrail (West
Bengal) grinding unit of 0.8mt expected in 2015.
Revising CY15/16E EPS by 5-6%:
We are cutting EPS for CY15/CY16 by 5.6%/5% to
INR8.5/11.1 respectively, to factor in for higher raw material and employee cost
and minor tweak in below-EBITDA items. We factor in for 4%/5% YoY volume
growth and INR14/bag and INR20/bag YoY rise in realizations in CY15/16. These
translate into EBITDA of INR1,066/INR1,302 per ton for CY15/16. We value ACEM
at INR262 (at ~USD180/ton - 20% discount to Ultratech or implied EV/EBITDA
10.5x CY16E EV/EBITDA). It offers ~3% downside at CMP. Maintain
Neutral.
n
n
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
5-6%
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.