13 March 2015
Update | Sector: Consumer
ITC
BSE Sensex
29,135
S&P CNX
8,641
CMP: INR346
TP: INR375 (+8%)
Neutral
Downtrading on the anvil?
Ten key takeaways from interaction with cigarette channel partners
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val. INRm/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
ITC IN
7953.2
410/312
-8/-9/-31
2,751.2
45.8
2849/8019
100.0
We met with several cigarette channel partners and ITC’s peers. Below are our
TEN key takeaways from our meetings.
Volume growth
for the industry may remain subdued in 4QFY15, with
various cigarette companies witnessing 8-10% volume decline. To an extent,
the industry may benefit from inventory building ahead of price hikes but
trade inventory pumping is limited this time and is unlikely to meaningfully
change the volume trends.
2.
4QFY15 performance
may also be impacted by high base, as 3QFY15 saw
inventory building ahead of price hikes. We note that ITC had reported an
estimated 3% volume decline in 4QFY14.
3.
Price hikes
may be rolled out from April. We gather from our interactions
that ITC has initiated 15% price hike in
Classic, Gold Flake Premium
(69mm)
and
Gold Flake Kings,
and 13% hike in
Navy Cut.
Prices are being increased
from INR68 to INR78 for
Gold Flake Premium,
from INR69 to INR78 for
Navy
Cut,
and from INR190 to INR218 for
Classic
and
Gold Flake Kings.
4.
Once ITC hikes prices, competitors generally follow suit.
5.
Downtrading:
There is a possibility of downtrading in FY16 from 69mm
cigarettes to 64mm cigarettes, given the quantum of price hikes in a
compressed timeframe. Performance of the 64mm segment can be resilient
in FY16. However, one more year of 25% hike in excise duty for this
segment may shift the price point towards INR4.5/5 and impact the
perception of price-value equation in the consumer’s mind.
6.
ITC launched Gold Flake Compact (offering in 74mm segment)
at
INR8.5/stick in certain markets a month ago. It has not yet been extended
nationally.
7.
Market share:
While ITC’s value market share have been stable, contraband
/illegal/duty-evaded segment has gained ~100bp market share in two years.
8.
The
Marlboro
brand is growing at a healthy rate of 20-25% on a small base
(Marlboro has less than 1% market share).
9.
Implementation of pictorial warnings
will begin from April 1, 2015 – 85% of
the space covered by warnings (60% pictorial, 25% textual) as against
existing 40%. This may be a long-term negative, though the short-term
impact could be limited, given that lose sticks account for 70% of cigarette
sales in India.
10.
The industry could shift to smaller pack sizes to mitigate the impact of ban
on loose sticks (as and when it comes). However, implementation of this
norm may be very difficult.
1.
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E March
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
365.0 402.4 446.3
EBITDA
137.7 149.9 168.0
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
98.0 107.9 123.9
12.3
11.5
36.7
35.3
44.0
28.1
9.4
13.6
10.1
40.7
35.0
43.4
25.5
8.5
15.6
14.9
45.4
36.2
44.1
22.2
7.6
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-14 Sep-14 Dec-13
Promoter
0.0
0.0
0.0
DII
34.8
34.8
34.3
FII
21.0
20.5
19.5
Others
44.2
44.6 46.1d
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
ITC
480
430
380
330
280
Sensex - Rebased
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029