6 April 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
BHEL
BSE SENSEX
28,504
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,660
BHEL IN
2,447.6
300/173
-10/10/0
36.9
CMP: INR235
n
TP: INR320 (+36%)
Buy
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 575.2/9.2
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 1477/6102
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
2015E 2016E 2017E
292.7
25.7
18.0
7.3
303.6
37.3
29.8
12.2
66.1
149.9
8.1
11.7
19.3
1.6
346.1
48.3
43.2
17.7
45.0
163.3
10.8
15.4
13.3
1.4
n
EPS Gr. (%) -50.0
BV/Sh.
140.6
( )
RoE (%)
5.2
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
7.6
32.0
1.7
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
BHEL’s provisional numbers - a mixed bag:
BHEL’s provisional FY15 numbers
were a mixed bag. Revenue at INR308b (down 19.8% YoY) was 7% above our
estimate of INR286b. This implies 4QFY15 revenue at INR136b (down 7.7% YoY),
above our estimate of INR115b. PBT for FY15 at INR19.1b (down 62% YoY) was
35.5% below our estimate of INR25.8b and PAT at INR13.1b (down 64% YoY) was
36.6% below our estimate of INR17.9b. We await further clarity on the
operational performance and also the one-offs. We would revise the estimates
post detailed results.
Order intake at INR308b in FY15 (v/s INR280b in FY14), entails 4QFY15 intake at
INR101b:
During FY15, BHEL’s order intake stood at INR308b v/s INR280b in FY14
— growth of 10% YoY. Key orders received in 4Q include: i) 1,080mw TSGENCO
(EPC, INR50b) and ii) 120mw Rammam stage III hydro electric project in West
Bengal, (INR2.3b). Also, BHEL was L1 in i) 1,320mw Udangudi (EPC, ~INR78b), ii)
500mw Tuticorin (BTG, INR12b), iii) 1gw of Pakal DUL Hydro power with Patel
Engg (~INR90b JV share, BHEL likely at INR10b) and iv) 1.2gw Pranhita Lift
Irrigation (INR30b).
Maintain Buy; strongly exposed to cyclical factors:
BHEL is strongly exposed to
cyclical factors: i) contribution margins at ~42% v/s expected EBITDA margin of
12.4% (adjusted) in FY14, leading to a meaningful operating leverage, ii) core NWC
stable at 200 days; cyclical factors of retention money (at 181 days in FY14 v/s 55-
60 days in FY07-09) and customer advances (deteriorated from 63% of revenue in
FY09 to 38% in FY14) that impacted reported NWC are expected to normalize as
we expect power sector BTB to increase from 3.4x currently to 3.8x in FY16E. We
maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR320/sh (18x FY17E), 36% upside.
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Sales (Net)
Cha nge (%)
EBITDA
As a % Sa l es
Adjusted EBITDA
Cha nge (%)
As a % Sa l es
Interes t
Depreci a ti on
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Effecti ve Ta x Ra te (%)
Reported PAT
Cha nge (%)
Adj. PAT
Cha nge (%)
Order i nta ke
Order book (INRb)
BTB (x)
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes
* Provisional no’s We would revise the estimates post clarity on operational numbers in the detailed results.
FY14
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
63,526 88,190 84,624 147,549
-23.7
-15.2
-15.7
-21.7
3,886
4,119
9,859
27,334
6.1
4.7
11.7
18.5
3,886
6,033
9,859
27,334
-67.7
-68.2
-39.7
-41.2
6.0
6.7
11.7
18.5
278
247
323
479
2,308
2,387
2,416
2,718
5,385
4,979
2,908
2,889
6,685
6,465 10,028
27,025
2,031
1,905
3,080
8,519
30.4
29.5
30.7
31.5
4,654
4,560
6,948
18,446
-49.5
-64.2
-41.2
-43.0
4,654
5,899
6,948
18,819
-49.5
-53.7
-41.2
-41.9
14,690 30,010 67,624 163,410
1,086
1,023
1,006
1,016
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.6
1Q
50,676
-20.2
2,179
4.3
2,179
-43.9
4.3
473
2,725
3,478
2,459
524
21.3
1,935
-58.4
1,935
-58.4
11,290
974
2.6
FY15
2Q
60,276
-31.7
2,915
4.8
2,915
-51.7
4.8
126
2,662
1,961
2,088
840
40.2
1,248
-72.6
1,248
-78.8
129,490
1,037
3.0
FY14
FY15E
3Q
4QE
60,784 136,325
*
383,888 308,060
*
-28.2
-7.6
-19.4
-19.8
2,938
38,774
45,198
46,806
4.8
28.4
11.8
15.2
2,938
10,918
47,112
46,806
-70.2
-60.1
-49.8
-0.6
4.8
28.4
11.8
15.2
52
125
1,326
776
2,564
2,649
9,829
10,600
2,741
3,306
16,160
11,486
3,062
11,450
*
50,203
19,060
*
936
3,620
15,535
5,920
30.6
31.6
30.9
31.1
2,126
7,831
34,608
13,140
-69.4
-57.5
-47.7
-62.0
*
36,303
*
2,126
7,831
13,140
-69.4
-58.4
-44.6
-63.8
66,410 100,950 280,070 308,140
1,040
1,039
1,016
1,039
3.3
3.4
2.6
3.4
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.