28 April 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Andhra Bank
BSE SENSEX
27,396
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,286
ANDB IN
602.8
46.2/0.7
110 / 61
-2/-1/-7
410/4755
39.0
CMP: INR77
TP: INR120 (+56%)
Buy
Strong core performance; Positive asset quality guidance by management
Andhra Bank’s (ANDB) 4QFY15 PAT was at INR1.9b (2x YoY on a lower base),
driven by healthy NIM (3.5%, 12 quarter high), strong loan growth (+17% YoY) and
lower credit costs (1.6% vs. 2.5% in 4QFY14).
Slippages during the quarter declined to a 4 quarter low of INR7.7b vs. INR9b in
3QFY15. Agriculture GNPA declined 20% QoQ to INR10.6b led by strong recoveries
(INR3b+ in 4Q) in AP/Telangana. Management is confident of recovering another
INR5-6b over the next couple of quarters (Agri NPA target of 3% by 2QFY16 vs.
5.2% currently and 7.2% in 1QFY15).
Bank continued to report healthy NIM (3.5%, +5bp QoQ) led by interest write-back
on Agriculture NPA recoveries (INR300m) from AP/Telangana. Management
guided that the margins would remain at similar levels over the next few quarters.
Other highlights:
(1) fees grew 21% QoQ (only 2% YoY on higher base) led by
strong traction in processing fees (INR1,132m) led by pickup in growth in 4QFY15,
(2) PCR, including technical write-offs, improved 580bp QoQ to 59%, (3) Bank
restructured INR31.3b in 4Q vs INR22.9b in 9M and (4) CASA ratio improved 151bp
QoQ to 27.4% (growth of 21% YoY and 15% QoQ). (5) CET 1 at 7.5%. Bank to raise
Tier I bonds in 1Q; equity raising unlikely in near term
Valuation and view:
Declining trend in slippages and zero restructuring pipeline
were the key positives. Over FY13-14, ANDB's earnings were severely hit due to
rising NPAs and further impacted in 1QFY15 due to a spike in Agriculture NPAs.
With clarity emerging on the farm loan waiver scheme and management’s focus
on recoveries, we believe earnings would improve gradually going forward
(INR5b+ of interest write-back and upgrade/recoveries of INR5-6b Agri related
NPAs). We expect RoA/RoE to improve to 0.7%/14% by FY17E led by normalized
tax rate and healthy margins. Maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR120 (0.6x FY17E BV).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
2016E
NII
55
OP
40
NP
12
NIM (%)
3.0
EPS (INR)
20.6
EPS Gr. (%) 94.8
BV/Sh. (INR) 170
ABV/Sh.(INR) 145
ROE (%)
12.2
ROA (%)
0.6
D. Payout(%) 29.0
Valuations
P/E(X)
3.7
P/BV (X)
0.45
P/ABV (X)
0.5
Div. Yield (%) 6.7
Y/E MAR
2017E 2018E
62
74
43
52
15
19
2.9
2.9
25.5
31.4
23.6
23.0
188
210
172
193
14.2
15.7
0.7
0.7
29.0
29.0
3.0
0.41
0.4
8.3
2.4
0.36
0.4
10.2
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.