29 April 2015
1QCY15 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Ambuja Cements
BSE SENSEX
27,226
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,240
ACEM IN
1,549.8
370.2/5.8
287/192
-3/6/-3
473/2,078
49.7
n
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Dec
2014 2015E 2016E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
99.1
18.6
13.2
8.5
25.9
65.6
13.4
18.7
28.0
98.8 113.0
17.8 24.1
12.2 17.2
6.1
8.7
-27.9 41.5
94.9 99.3
8.4
9.0
11.9 12.7
27.4 19.4
1.8
17.9
172
1.7
13.0
165
CMP: INR239
n
TP: INR260 (+9%)
Neutral
Double digit volume whammy; cost benefits protects margins; Neutral
Double digit volume dip led weakest March-Q volume since CY11:
ACEM’s
1QCY15 cement volume de-grew 10.4% YoY (flat QoQ) at 5.43mt (est. of ~8%
de-growth), with the western region being the weakest contributor.
Realizations stood in line at INR4,465/ton (+2.1% QoQ), with worst trend in
north. Revenue down 8.1% YoY (+1.9% QoQ) to INR24.2b (v/s est. of INR24.9b).
Cost benefits percolate; freight cost was dampener:
Cost benefits came from
(1) lower energy cost due to mix-optimization (higher imported coal) and 4-5%
QoQ moderation in pet coke price, (2) 15-20% QoQ decline in packaging cost
(lower of crude prices) and (3) lower advertisement expenses and spares.
However, the benefits were negated by higher freight (+10% QoQ) due to high
inter-unit clinker logistics and increase in rail freight cost.
Good margins despite volume cliff:
EBITDA de-grew 18% YoY (42% QoQ) to
~INR4.7b (in-line), translating into better-than-expected EBITDA margin of
19.4% (-2.4pp YoY). EBITDA/ton improved by INR257 QoQ (-INR81 YoY) to
INR868 (v/s est. of ~INR829). PAT stood at INR3.17b (v/s est. of INR3.2b), as
lower tax rates (25% v/s est. of 29%) offset the higher depreciation.
Modest cost push ahead; CY15 margins can expand on 1% YoY price rise:
With
the benefits of lower input cost and savings in packaging cost, ACEM is likely to
witness no major inflationary push in CY15 (~1% YoY). Thus, realizations growth
of >1% YoY (v/s est. of flat) would trigger an expansion in profitability.
Maintain Neutral on sub-normal volume lever, fair valuation:
We cut
CY15E/16E EPS by 5%/1% to INR6.1/INR8.7. With limited expansion plan and
weak industry demand growth, ACEM is likely to underperform in volume
growth over the near term. Anticipated synergy befits are delayed. We value
ACEM at USD175/ton (25% discount to UTCEM’s target valuation), translating
into a target price of INR260 (implied EV/EBITDA of 13.3x CY16E), with 9%
upside to CMP. Maintain
Neutral.
n
3.6
18.3
EV/Ton (USD) 185
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
n
n
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.