5 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE SENSEX
27,440
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
Cons. BV.
( ) RoE
Cons.
( )
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
(
)
P/BV (X)
2016E 2017E 2018E
72.4
86.2 103.8
49.5
28.3
4.1
46.9
370.7
13.5
1.5
2.7
30.4
61.7
35.8
4.1
57.9
23.6
427.4
14.5
1.6
2.9
24.6
75.6
43.7
4.0
70.3
21.4
496.1
15.2
1.6
2.9
20.3
2.9
0.1
S&P CNX
8,325
KMB IN
911.6
1,474/785
8/29/54
60.0
CMP: INR1,424
TP: INR1,355 (-5%)
Neutral
Strong beat on lending PAT; other verticals show improvement
KMB’s consolidated PAT for 4QFY15 beat our estimate by 18%, led by (a) strong fee
income (+41% YoY, +19% QoQ), (b) higher non-core income (INR2.8b v/s INR0.6b in
4QFY14), and (c) healthy asset quality (NSL stable QoQ at 1.2%) in banking business.
Capital market related business also reported strong beat (INR1.26b v/s our estimate
of INR0.7b) – its share in consolidated PAT rose to a 16-quarter high of 14%.
n
Banking business:
Standalone PAT grew 30% YoY (on a lower base) to INR5.3b
(11% beat). Total income grew 37% YoY, driven by healthy fees (+41% YoY) and
higher non-core income. KMB accounted for INR0.54b of integration-related
expenses, adjusted for which opex grew 25% YoY and PAT grew 39% YoY. Loan
growth (ex-CV) remains healthy at 28% YoY, driven by unsecured retail loans
(10% of loans, +35% YoY), mortgages (22% of loans, +22% YoY) and corporate
banking (31% of loans, +41% YoY). Share of retail deposits (CASA+TD less than
INR50m) grew 700bp YoY to 70%.
n
Other highlights:
(1) K-Sec’s market share improved 10bp QoQ to 2.9%, (2)
domestic AMC AUM increased 9% QoQ to INR395b, but reported a loss of
INR180m (higher distribution commission, in line with competition), (3) NIM
(consolidated) was flat YoY at 4.9%, and (4) the bank announced 1:1 bonus
shares and dividend of INR0.9/share.
Valuation and view:
Merger with VYSB places KMB in a sweet spot, with strong
presence across geographies and products, and continued healthy capitalization
(CET 1 of 16.5%). The merged entity will be India’s fourth-largest private sector bank,
with a loan book of INR1.3t and loan market share of 1.8%+. KMB’s premium
multiples are likely to sustain, considering the strong growth and operating leverage
available across businesses. While we are positive on the business, at 3.3x
consolidated BV and 25x EPS, upside is limited. Reiterate
Neutral;
our SOTP-based
TP is INR1,355 (pro-forma merged).
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 1,298.1/20.5
Avg Val(INR m)/Vol ‘000 1,474/1,324
3.8
3.3
(C
)
Div. Yield (%)
0.1
0.1
* Proforma merged (KMB+VYSB)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.