13 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Emami
BSE SENSEX
27,251
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD
b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
22.2
5.4
4.9
21.6
21.7
54.3
45.3
44.0
43.6
17.3
25.9
6.9
6.1
27.0
25.1
66.0
44.9
44.8
34.9
14.3
30.7
8.4
7.5
32.9
22.0
80.8
44.8
45.4
28.6
11.6
n
n
S&P CNX
8,235
HMN IN
227.0
213.6/3.3
1,140/429
-10/22/100
157/209
27.3
n
CMP: INR941
n
TP: INR1,060 (+13%)
Buy
Strong operational performance with market share gains
Emami’s (HMN) 4QFY15 sales and PAT beat estimates,
with sales up 24.2% to
INR5.5b (est. of INR5.3b) and PAT up 21.6% to INR1.4b (est. of INR 1.3b). EBITDA
was up 18.9% YoY to INR1.4b (est. of INR1.4b). The performance was aided by soft
base (sales decline of 1.2% in 4QFY14). Underlying domestic volumes recorded
healthy 12% growth while overall volumes were up 13.3%. HMN registered broad-
based growth with market share gains in key categories. New product launches
contributed 8% to revenue growth during 4Q.
Solid gross margin expansion:
Gross margin expanded 220bp YoY to 64.4%, led by
benign RM prices and price hikes. However, higher ad spends (up 380bp YoY,
primarily on account of soft base and new launch momentum) resulted in EBITDA
margin contraction of 110bp YoY to 25.3% (est. of 27.1%). Thus, EBITDA was up
18.9% YoY to INR1.4b (est. of INR1.4b). PAT grew 21.6% to INR1.4b (est. of INR
1.3b), aided by higher other income and lower tax rates.
Acceleration in new launches:
Emami launched five products during FY15 which
contributed ~5% to revenue growth—driven by strong performance in Zandu Ultra
Power and F&H face wash. Boroplus face wash and SHE Comfort did not perform
well and are expected to see corrective action. The management has guided for
continued new launch activity (5% of revenues in FY16).
Concall highlights-FY16 guidance:
a) Revenue growth of 17-18%, with
International segment posting 20-25% growth, b) A&P-to-sales to be ~18%, c) tax
rate to be MAT and d) capex to be INR1.5b each for FY16 and FY17.
Valuation and view:
We largely retain our estimates and model for robust 25%
and 24% EBITDA and EPS CAGR, respectively, over FY15E-17E. Maintain Buy with a
target price of INR1,060 (P/E of 32x FY17E EPS, 20% premium to average three-
year P/E—given the strong earnings growth ahead). We expect the rich valuations
to sustain as Emami’s earnings momentum is led by strong topline delivery
compared with the benign commodity cost-led earnings uptick of the rest of the
universe. Our long-term structural BUY thesis on Emami remains unchanged.
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
n
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.