16 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
JSW Steel
BSE SENSEX
27,324
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
S&P CNX
8,262
JSTL IN
241.7
CMP: INR875
TP: INR1,108 (+27%)
Buy
Above estimate on better-than-expected realization
JSW Steel (JSTL) reported better-than-expected 4Q numbers. Consolidated EBITDA at
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 211.5/3.3
INR16.8b was 6% ahead of our estimate, led by better price realization. Standalone
52-Week Range (INR)
1365 / 870
realizations dropped by ~INR2,100/t QoQ as against our estimate of ~INR2,800/t,
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
-1/-26/-38
which was attributed to higher value-add mix and favorable timing benefit of longer-
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
722/648
term supply contracts price resets. RM cost was lower by ~INR1,000 QoQ, offsetting
Free float (%)
60.0
part of the realization drop. Standalone EBITDA/t at ~INR5,470 was down from
~INR7,000 in 3QFY15. Reported consolidated PAT of INR311m benefited from a tax
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
credit of INR1.1b and includes ~INR260m impact of impairment on US assets.
Y/E MAR
2016E 2017E 2018E
Realizations remain under pressure; iron ore benefit from 2Q:
Steel prices would
remain under pressure as Russian mill offers have gotten more competitive
Sales
511.6 556.7 666.5
EBITDA
92.0 100.3 115.2
(although Chinese offers have stabilized) and a few longer-term supply contracts
PAT
11.6 15.1 22.7
prices reset. We expect ~INR1,300/t QoQ decline in realization in 1QFY16. Lower
EPS (INR)
48.1 62.6 94.1
domestic iron ore costs will however offset this price decline, in our view, but
EPS Gr(%)
-35.5 30.3 50.2
benefit would be seen only from 2QFY16 as higher cost iron ore remains in
RoE (%)
5.0
6.3
9.0
inventory at the year end.
RoCE (%)
7.4
8.1
9.4
FY16E volume guidance of 12.9mt; increase of 7% YoY:
Crude steel production is
P/E (x)
18.2 14.0
9.3
guided to increase 6% YoY in FY16 to 13.4mt and saleable steel to increase 7% YoY
P/BV
0.9
0.9
0.8
to 12.9mt (our estimate 12.6 mt). Exports share would decline from ~26% in FY15
6.6
5.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
7.2
to 16% in FY16E.
Value-added product (VAP) share of 37%:
JSTL targets to increase its share of
VAP to 37% from 33% in FY15 (and 4Q exit of 34%). CAL2 (0.95mt) line was
Estimate change
commissioned in the quarter, while electrical steel complex (0.2mt) was
TP change
commissioned in April 2015. This, along with the ramp-up of CAL1, would drive
higher VAP mix and volumes amid tepid domestic demand environment.
Rating change
Maintain BUY:
We have done minor tweaks to our estimate post the 4Q numbers.
Our target price, based on 6.5x FY17E EV/EBITDA, is INR1,108. Maintain
Buy.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.