20 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Pidilite Industries
BSE SENSEX
27,837
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,423
PIDI IN
512.6
292.2/4.6
638/286
-1/33/61
188/392
30.3
n
CMP: INR570
n
TP: INR560 (-2%)
Neutral
Volume growth decelerates; Margin miss led by one-time higher ad spends
PIDI’s 4QFY15 results
were below estimates, with standalone sales up 6.7% to
INR9.7b (est. of INR10.4b) and muted 3.1% overall volume growth (5.5% volume
growth in consumer bazaar segment). EBITDA was up 19.2% YoY to INR1.4b (est.
of INR1.6b), aided by gross margin expansion. Adj. PAT was flat YoY at INR923m
(est. of INR1b) despite benign base (4QFY14 adj. PAT declined 3.3% YoY).
Gross margin expanded 510bp YoY
to 47.7% (est. of 45.1%), led by benign input
cost and carryover of earlier price hikes. However, higher other expense (up
370bp YoY)—driven by higher brand spends (6.3% in 4Q15 v/s 4.3% in FY15)
during ICC World Cup ’15—curtailed EBITDA margin expansion to 150bp YoY to
14.4% (est. of 15.2%). The management has guided for similar gross margin
expansion in 1QFY16 and flattish ad spends for FY16. Also, it is not contemplating
any price cuts. Thus, we believe that 4Q15 EBITDA miss was a blip due to event-
driven ad spends.
Consolidated performance:
Sales, EBITDA and adj. PAT posted 5.3%, 30% and
10.3% growth, respectively. Imputed subsidiary EBITDA loss declined 60% YoY.
Con-Call Highlights:
a) Rural growth > Urban; b) not contemplating any price cuts;
1QFY16 gross margins will be almost similar to 4Q15 numbers; c) excise duty to
increase 100bp YoY in FY16; d) ad spend to be at FY15 run rate (4.3%); e) FY16
capex to be INR1.75b-INR2b.
Valuation and view:
Barring this quarter, Pidilite’s volume growth in consumer
bazaar segment has remained consistent in the 9-10% band. We cut estimates by
5-6% to incorporate the 4Q miss, but still model for 31% EPS CAGR over FY15-
17E—driven by expected urban demand recovery, benign RM environment and
lower base (during the previous episode of RM deflation, Pidilite delivered an EPS
CAGR of 50% over FY09-11). We are building in 320bps gross margin expansion
over FY15-17E. However, we believe that valuations at 38.8x FY16E and 32.9x
FY17E EPS are rich. Maintain
Neutral
with revised target price of INR560 (32x FY17
EPS, 10% premium to three-year avg. P/E—given expected strong EPS CAGR).
Spike in input costs/currency depreciation is a key risk.
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS
(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
43.7
7.6
5.2
10.2
9.9
48.4
23.1
28.2
56.0
11.8
50.8
11.0
7.5
14.7
44.3
57.5
27.7
35.5
38.8
9.9
60.3
12.8
8.9
17.3
17.8
68.2
27.5
35.4
32.9
8.4
n
n
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
5-6%
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.