22 May 2015
4QFY15 Result Update | Sector: NBFC
Repco Home Finance
BSE SENSEX
27809
Equity Shares (cr)
52-Week Range (Rs)
1,6,12 Abs.Perf.(%)
M.Cap. (Rs cr)
M.Cap. (US$ b)
S&P CNX
8421
6.2
725/369
-3/10/43
3,786
63.1
CMP: INR609
YEAR NET INC PAT
END
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
(INRCr) (INRCr)
262
324
407
137
172
220
EPS
(INRCr)
22.0
27.6
35.2
EPS
TP: INR750
PE
(X)
27.7
22.1
17.3
ABV
(INR)
130
154
186
P/ABV
(INR)
4.7
4.0
3.3
ROAA
(%)
2.6
2.5
2.5
Gr.(%)
24
25
28
BUY
ROAE
(%)
17.5
18.9
20.3
Result Highlights - In line quarter
Net Income at INR 74.6cr grew 27% (est. INR 73.6cr); Pre Provisioning Profits grew 24% at INR 58.1cr (est. INR
57.4cr); Adj. PAT at INR 39.0cr grew 24% (est. INR 38.5cr)
Loan growth remains robust at 29%; Disbursements growth bounced back to 47% for the quarter due to spillover from
the previous quarter (3QFY15 growth at 7%); Absolute GNPAs have marginally risen, while GNPAs as % of loans
have declined 15bp YoY to 1.32%.
INRCr
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Income
Other Income
Net Income
Pre Prov. Profit
Provisions
Profit Before Tax
Tax Provisions
Adj. PAT
Loan Growth (%)
NIMs (%)
Gross NPAs (%)
Net NPAs (%)
ROA (%)*
ROE (%)*
4QFY14
145
91
54
5
59
47
4
43
11
31
32
4.7
1.5
0.7
2.7
16.4
3QFY15 4QFY15
171
112
59
5
64
14
50
3
47
13
34
27
7
4.5
20.5
2.0
1.2
2.4
16.2
183
117
66
9
75
16
58
6
52
13
39
29
47
4.5
20.5
1.3
0.5
2.3
16.1
YoY
26%
29%
23%
66%
27%
37%
24%
21%
15%
24%
QoQ
7%
4%
13%
74%
17%
16%
18%
11%
2%
14%
FY14 FY15
511
325
186
24
211
39
172
23
149
39
110
32
47
4.7
18.4
1.5
0.7
2.7
16.4
669
432
237
24
262
55
207
186
49
137
27
27
4.5
20.5
1.3
0.5
2.6
17.5
YoY
31%
33%
27%
0%
24%
42%
20%
25%
25%
25%
Operating Expenses 12
52% 137%
20 -10%
Disbursement Gr (%) 31
Cost to Inc Ratio(%) 18.4
Note:* 2Q & 3Q FY15 ROA & ROE are based on reported PAT (incl. DTL exp.) and hence lower. Annual figs. are based on Adj. PAT
Valuation and view
Loan/Disbursement growth maintains momentum:
Disbursement growth durng the quarter was at +47% as much of the
loans which were sanctioned towards the end of 3QFY15 were disbursed during the current quarter and as a result
disbursement growth in 3QFY15 was at just 7%. Loan book grew by a healthy 29% to INR 6013cr. Further, management
has maintained its guidance of growing its loan book by 25-30% annnually in coming years.
Niche business model:
Repco's niche focus on lower ticket-size loans (average Rs 12 Lacs), non-salaried segment
(57% of loans) and smaller geographies (tier 2 & 3 cities) is likely to aid growth with minimal competition from banks in
this segment.
Strong growth combined with healthy profitability:
Operating with lean cost structure and manageable credit costs,
Repco has been consistently operating at ROA (Return On Asset) profile of around 2.5%. With visibility of limited risks to
its competitive advantages in the medium term, we expect RoAs to sustain at current levels. Given its high capitalisation
(20.3% CAR) Repco can grow at 25-30% CAGR for the next three years and achieve 20% ROE without requiring capital
infusion.
Valuation & View:
We expect the stock to give compounded returns of 25% over the next three years (i.e 2x in three years).
We maintain our target on the stock at INR 750 valuing the stock at a P/ABV of 4.0x based on FY17E ABV.
Jehan Bhadha
(jehan.bhadha@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 33124915