22 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
ITC
BSE SENSEX
27,958
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
MCap INR b/USD b
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR M)/Vol
‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,429
ITC IN
7,953.2
2,612.6/43.4
410 / 312
-5/-10/-19
2,958/8,401
100.0
CMP: INR328
TP: INR365 (11%)
Neutral
Another quarter of double digit Cig volume decline; EBITDA flat YoY
ITC’s 4QFY15 performance
was below expectations with muted sales growth of
0.6% YoY to INR92.9b (est. INR97.4b), EBITDA grew 1.2% YoY to INR32.4b (est.
INR34.7b) and Adj. PAT (adjusted for INR 580m impact on rationalization of Safety
Matches manufacturing operations) increased 5.4% YoY to INR24b (est. INR25.1b).
Cig volumes declined ~13% (same as 3QFY15)
while segment EBIT grew 6% and
posted 170bp margin expansion to 64.3% (20th consecutive quarter of margin
expansion). However margins declined 540bps QoQ. Cig volumes remained under
pressures owing to cumulative impact of higher excise duty lead price hikes (for
the quarter price hike component stood at ~24% in our view). We understand that
portfolio witnessed some downtrading to 64mm as maximum impact of price
hikes was felt in 69mm segment. Unabated rise in excise duties and consequent
price hikes is putting the demand inelasticity of Cig consumption/volumes at risk
and also impairing ITC’s ability to deliver consistent and healthy high teens Cig
EBIT growth.
Non-Cig FMCG posted 10.9% sales growth
and reported EBIT of INR485m, up 13%
YoY. Agri revenues declined 28.8% YoY due to absence of trading opportunities in
Soya while margins expanded 430bp due to improvement in mix. Hotels segment
posted 8.1% YoY revenue growth but margins contracted 650bp YoY. Paper
segment revenue declined 4.6% while segment EBIT grew 1.1% and margins
expanded 90bp to 15.8% due to better product mix.
FY15 Sales, EBITDA and PAT grew 9.8%, 9.6% and 11% resp. Cig sales registered
modest 8.7% growth while segment EBIT grew 13.6% YoY. Dividend at INR6.25/sh.
Maintain Neutral:
We cut our earnings for FY15-17E by 1-2% and model for 9% Cig
volume decline in FY16E. We expect the Cig volumes to remain under pressure for
few more quarters as consumer absorb the higher prices. At 24.3x FY16E and
21.5x FY17E EPS, ITC trades at a discount of ~35% to the sector average. However
lack of Cig volume growth and overhang of potential ban on loose sticks as well as
expanded pictorial warnings precludes re-rating. Maintain
Neutral
with a revised
TP of INR 365 (24x FY17 EPS, 15% discount to three year average).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj.EPS
(INR)
Gr. (%)
2015
360.8
135.3
96.5
12.1
9.8
2016E 2017E
397.0
149.0
107.4
13.5
11.3
40.7
34.9
43.3
24.3
8.1
441.7
167.4
121.7
15.3
13.4
45.3
35.6
44.2
21.5
7.3
BV/Sh.(INR) 36.7
RoE (%)
34.8
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
43.3
26.8
9.0
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.