29 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Utilities
NTPC
BSE SENSEX
27,828
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,434
NTPC IN
8,245.5
169/127
-11/-1/-25
25.0
CMP: INR137
n
TP: INR178 (+30%)
Buy
Robust core business performance; raising earnings estimates
4QFY15 earnings ahead of estimates:
NTPC reported revenue of INR192.2b,
down 8% YoY, but higher than our estimate of INR164b. Revenue growth was
impacted by higher base and new regulation. EBITDA grew 3% YoY to INR45.8b,
15% beat. This is credible, given lower profitability in 1HFY15 owing to new
regulation. Net profit declined 5% YoY to INR29.4b.
Core business performance robust:
NTPC booked prior period revenue of
INR2.4b (above EBITDA) and tax refund of INR834m (below PBT) for the quarter.
Recurring EBITDA was ~INR44b, as the management indicated that all stations
attained normative PAF of 83%+. Recurring PAT was INR28b, 18% beat despite in-
line other income of INR6.4b. Higher fixed charge recovery than incentive
contributed to better performance, in our view, as generation/PLF was muted.
Operational performance broadly in-line:
For 4QFY15, generation was 61.4BUs
(down 2% YoY) versus our estimate of 60.7BUs and sales were 57.5BUs (up 3.5%
YoY) versus our estimate of 55BUs. Coal and gas project PLFs were in-line at
82.7% (600bp lower YoY) and 27% (900bp lower), respectively. Capacity addition
for FY15E is 1.3GW, while FY16 target is 2.6GW.
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 1,130/17.7
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000 1152/7816
n
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
726.4
160.9
90.4
11.0
-8.9
99.0
10.8
8.4
12.5
1.4
716.4
186.3
98.5
12.0
9.0
93.0
12.4
9.7
11.4
1.5
756.5
219.1
111.3
13.5
12.9
100.3
14.0
11.3
10.1
1.4
n
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Raising estimates; reiterating Buy:
NTPC is our top pick, given its relatively robust
business model, strong cash flows, and low leverage. It would be a key beneficiary of
improved demand/generation and valuations are comfortable. We upgrade our
FY16/17 estimates by ~4% and expect net profit of INR98.5b in FY16 (up 10%) and
INR111.3b in FY17 (up 13%). The stock trades at 10.1x FY17E EPS and 1.4x FY17E BV
(RoE of 14%). Bonus debentures and dividend payout provide comfort.
Buy.
Nalin Bhatt
(NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5429
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.