29 May 2015
4QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Metals
SAIL
BSE SENSEX
27,828
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val/Vol ‘000
Free float
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS
EPS Gr(%)
BV/Sh.INR
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
( )
2015 2016E 2017E
461.2
51.8
21.1
5.1
106.9
4.8
0.7
11.3
500.5
44.3
-1.4
-0.3
104.2
-0.3
0.7
14.8
578.4
69.5
10.3
2.5
104.3
2.4
30.4
0.7
10.2
S&P CNX
8,434
SAIL IN
4,130.1
313.5/5.1
113/65
-12/-23/-40
516/6091
25.0
CMP: INR66
TP: INR41 (-38%)
Sell
Above estimates on lower cost; price and volume headwinds continue
Standalone EBITDA at INR9.3b (down 23% YoY/24% QoQ) was 15% ahead of our
estimate on lower cost. PAT was down 26% YoY (-42% QoQ) to INR3.3b as against our
estimate of a loss of INR477m due to higher other income (INR2.9b v/s est. of
INR1.1b) and tax credit of INR590m.
Volume down 9% YoY:
Steel sales volume declined 9% YoY to 3.16mt on poor
demand. Finished steel inventories increased 90kt QoQ. Saleable steel production
was up 5% YoY (8% QoQ) to 3.4mt. ISP, which was commissioned in 3QFY15,
continues to operate at low levels due to lack of downstream capacities and
typically 9-12 months of stabilization phase. The management is guiding for 2mt
overall volume growth in FY16E to 13.7mt (our est. 14.2mt).
Realization fell 6% QoQ; further downside in 1QFY16:
Net sales realization (NSR)
declined by ~INR2,000/t QoQ (-6%) to INR33,183/ton. The management expects
further cut to the tune of INR1,000-1,500/ton based on the run-rate in April/May.
EBITDA/ton declined INR1,280 QoQ to INR2,943:
Lower realization was partly
offset by INR800/ton QoQ savings in cost. We expect EBITDA/ton to fall further in
1QFY16 to INR1,920 on likely price cut. With lower coking coal prices and volume
leverage, we expect EBITDA/t to improve to ~INR4,260/ton by FY17E. SAIL did not
provide for DMF (MMDRA Act, 2015) unlike Tata Steel, which would have further
impacted profitability.
Interest cost continues to rise; FY16E capex at INR75b:
Interest cost rose 16%
QoQ to INR4.3b as capacities get commissioned while borrowings continue to rise
(INR20b higher QoQ). Capex was INR65b in FY15 and is expected to increase to
INR75b in FY16.
Target price INR41; maintain Sell:
Our FY16E/17E EBITDA is cut by 20%/2% on
lower steel realization partly getting offset by lower coking coal prices in
FY17E,.Our EV/EBITDA-based (6.5x FY17E) target price is INR41 (INR38 earlier).
11.1 -106.9 -814.5
14.9 -217.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
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