15 June 2015
Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
BSE Sensex
26,425
S&P CNX
7,983
CMP: INR889
TP: INR965 (+9%)
Neutral
AGM: Core capex on track; telecom launch in Dec-15
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Free float (%)
Refining a near term support; E&P turnaround and traction in telecom
critical to support RoE improvement
RIL IN
3,236.4
1,113/797
4/0/22
2,877.7
44.9
54.8
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol ‘000 3632/3822
RIL’s AGM (Annual General Meeting) did not see any new announcements, but was
largely an update on ongoing USD32b core/non-core capex. Barring a 6-month cracker
delay, core projects are largely on track. Telecom launch in Dec-15 and its first ever
detailed disclosure gave glimpse of Reliance Jio’s network, content
creation/affordable handset efforts and likely pricing. While voice strategy remains
uncertain, we believe 4G subscriber conversion would be key. Large non-core
investments even if accretive over long-term; any gains will be back-ended, diluting
overall return ratio in the interim.
Core capex monetization from FY17; except cracker, projects on track
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
3,573 2,848 3,429
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
Gr (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Adj. P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
316.0 350.4 454.4
227.2 250.0 308.1
77.5
3.4
11.0
10.5
11.5
1.2
9.8
1.1
85.3 103.8
10.0
11.0
10.6
10.4
1.1
9.0
1.2
23.2
737.9 810.3 890.1
12.3
12.4
8.6
1.0
6.8
1.5
Of the core projects,
petcoke gasification and phased polyester
commissioning is largely on track, while off-gases cracker is delayed by 6
months with now scheduled commissioning in 3QFY17.
On the domestic E&P,
RIL acknowledged that domestic E&P business
shareholder returns are below cost of capital, but its portfolio is still
promising with yet to be monetized 5-6tcf discovered gas resources.
Organized retail:
To increase its presence from 200 cities (2,600 stores)
currently to 900 cities by next year. To roll out e-commerce initiative by ear-
end and together with physical stores expect 30% to 50% yoy growth.
While Reliance JIO commercial launch is delayed to Dec-15 (vs expected
phased launch in CY15), a combination of (a) significant expected decline in
the 4G handset price to INR4,000 by Dec-15 (vs INR8,000-10,000 now) and
(b) significant capacity/scale of JIO planned at launch date (~100m wireless
subscribers) would lead to increased activity in the telecom data market.
Reliance JIO’s voice strategy remains uncertain as no particular details were
shared about how it would be providing voice services which currently
constitute ~80% of the Indian wireless market revenue. We expect potential
tie-up with existing operators for circuit-switched-fall-back (CSFB).
Large-scale population coverage planned by JIO combined with low 4G
handset prices can enable mass adoption of 4G services. However, rate of
subscriber up-take would be the key as JIO would be largely targeting churn
from existing subscribers with the proposition of a cheaper and better data
offering.
A six month delay in cracker and low shale gas returns could be offset by
better GRM’s in FY17. On FY17E basis (standalone), the stock trades at 9x
adj. EPS of INR104 and EV/EBITDA of 6.8x. SOTP-based target price stands
at INR965/sh.
Neutral.
A
JIO: 4G subscriber conversion would be key; voice strategy uncertain
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Mar-15 Dec-14 Mar-14
Promoter
45.2
45.3
45.3
DII
FII
Others
12.6
22.0
20.2
12.0
22.2
20.5
11.3
22.1
21.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Reliance Inds.
Sensex - Rebased
1,350
1,200
1,050
900
750
Valuation and view
1
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Shobhit Khare
(Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.