08 July 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
TCS
BSE SENSEX
27,574
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
S&P CNX
8,329
TCS IN
1,958.7
CMP: INR2,521
TP: INR2,550 (+1%)
Neutral
CC revenue growth below estimate; USD2b Digital revenue run rate
Lowest 1Q CC growth in six years:
TCS’ 3.5% QoQ growth (lower than our
estimate of 4.4%) in Constant Currency was the key highlight for the quarter; this
is the lowest growth in seasonally strong 1Q in the last six years. Volume growth
of 4.8% was sanguine and in line, but greater uptick in hardware & equipment
segment would have contributed partly toward the same.
In-line operating profitability and PAT:
EBIT margin for the quarter is 26.2%,
down 90bp QoQ and in line with our estimate of 26.5%. PAT was INR57.1b, -3.3%
QoQ and in line with our estimate of INR56.8b.
USD2b run rate in Digital:
For the first time, TCS shared its scale in Digital (at
12.5% of revenues) and cited that the segment is growing well above the
company average. Revenue share implies annualized run rate of USD2b from the
Digital segment; this compares with estimated Digital scale at ACN’s ~USD6b and
CTSH’s USD600m+, though definitions may vary across companies.
Cutting earnings by 2%:
We have cut our USD revenue estimate for FY16 by 1pp,
and our assumed CQGR of 3.4% over 2Q-4QFY16 implies FY16 USD revenue
growth of 10.2% (v/s 11.4% earlier). Consequently, our earnings estimates for
FY16/17 are lower by 2%.
Outperformance delta waning; maintain Neutral:
Despite traction in Digital,
softness/volatility in select segments and the base in large verticals limit the
likelihood of bettering 3.3-3.4% ask rates to meet our FY16/17 revenue estimates.
We expect USD revenue CAGR of 12.2% over FY15-17E and earnings CAGR of
12.5% during this period. Our Price Target of INR2525 discounts FY17E EPS by 18x.
Maintain Neutral.
M.Cap (INR b)/(USD b) 4,938/78.3
52-Week Range (INR) 2,834/2,300
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
-6/1/-3
Avg Val/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.INR)
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
946 1,082 1,246
273
217
13.5
38.5
23.0
306
236
8.6
38.0
21.2
15.5
1.7
353
274
16.5
36.7
18.2
13.2
1.9
3,083/1,207
26.1
110.8 120.3 140.1
293.4 340.3 422.4
EV/EBITDA(x) 17.6
Div.Yld (%)
3.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.