13 July 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
IndusInd Bank
BSE SENSEX
27,961
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,460
IIB IN
580.7
538.3/8.5
967 / 528
9/14/61
769/993
85.0
CMP: INR924
TP: INR1,140 (+23%)
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
ABV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (X)
P/BV (X)
P/ABV (X)
Div. Yield (%)
44.1
41.6
24.3
4.0
41.8
23.5
287.1
285.4
18.0
2.0
14.0
22.2
3.2
3.2
0.5
54.8 69.8
51.9 66.3
30.2 38.7
4.1
4.2
52.1 66.6
24.5 27.8
331.9 389.2
329.1 385.3
16.8 18.5
2.1
2.2
14.0 14.0
17.8
2.8
2.8
0.7
13.9
2.4
2.4
0.9
Results in line: Strong core operating performance; fueled to fly; best-in-class RoA
IIB’s 1QFY16 PAT was in line with our estimates (+25% YoY) at INR 5.2b, driven by
strong operating performance (23% YoY) and stable credit costs (52bp).
Consumer finance division (CFD) grew by 6% QoQ (18% YoY) and accounted for
46% of incremental credit growth v/s 28% in 4QFY15; this was partly helped by
recovery in CV loans (~25% of incremental growth), which returned to double
digits after seven quarters. Increasing share of CFD would lead to higher NIMs,
RoA/RoE and lower risk density (credit RWA was flat QoQ despite 5% loan growth).
SA customer acquisition remains healthy at 0.18mn/quarter despite reduction in
SA rates. Strong customer acquisition and deepening of relationships led to SA
deposits growth of 33% YoY (+8% QoQ). SA ratio improved to 18% (17.5% in 4Q).
Overall CASA ratio improved to 34.7% v/s 33.3% in 1QFY15.
Post the QIP issuance (INR43.3b), CET1 ratio has increased to 16.3%. Including the
INR7.5b equity issuance to promoters, CET1 would be >17%—the highest amongst
Indian banks. We expect 27% loan CAGR in FY15-18 and CET1 of ~14% in FY18.
Other highlights:
a) FX and IB fees continue to drive overall fee growth (accounted
for 47% of fees), b) NSL remained one of the best at 94bp (+10bp QoQ).
Maintain estimates; FY15-18E earnings CAGR of 25%+:
In planning cycle 3, IIB’s
key focus is to build scale with 3Ds strategy—Dominate (among the top three
banks in home markets), Differentiate (extensive use of technology and cross sell)
and Diversify (new product addition, payment solution, etc). Strong core
profitability (2.9% of avg. assets v/s private banks’ average of 2.5% and HDFCB’s
2.7%), improving CASA ratio (best among mid-sized private banks) and healthy
return ratios (RoA of 2%+ and RoE of 18-19%) are key positives. Delay in CV cycle
revival and sharp moderation in FX and IB fees remain the key risks to our
estimates.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.