22 July 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
TTK Prestige
BSE SENSEX
28,371
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR B)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr (%)
2015
13.9
1.5
0.9
77.8
-15.0
2016E 2017E
15.5
18.0
1.9
1.2
103.2
32.8
624.7
17.5
25.2
38.5
6.4
2.4
1.6
140.6
36.2
718.6
20.9
30.2
28.2
5.5
S&P CNX
8,590
TTKPT IN
11.7
43.8/0.7
4,830/2,989
3/7/-9
80/21
29.6
CMP: INR3,987
TP: INR4,500 (+13%)
Buy
Results below estimates; new launches to drive growth
Results below estimates:
TTKPT reported overall revenue of INR3.5b (est. of
INR3.7b) as against INR3.4b in 1QFY15, marking a 3.6% YoY growth. Cookers
revenues de-grew 3% during 1QFY16 to INR1,310m, cookware revenues grew 14%
YoY to INR640m, and appliances revenues grew 6% YoY to INR1,490m. EBITDA
margins declined 120bps to 11% in 1QFY16 (est. of 12.7%). Adjusted PAT de-grew
7.4% YoY—from INR265m in 1QFY15 to INR246m in 1QFY16 (est. of INR301m).
Weak consumer sentiment resulted in muted growth; TTKPT gaining market
share over peers:
The management highlighted that weak consumer sentiment
has been responsible for sector’s slow growth; however, TTKPT has been
outperforming the market and witnessed market share gain of 200bp in pressure
cooker segment and 300bp in induction cooktop segment over the past one year.
Amongst channels, Prestige Smart Kitchen (PSK) has been outperforming other
channels and posted 10% growth for the quarter. The management is focusing on
driving higher footfalls and throughputs from the existing PSK stores and will add
new stores moderately.
Product innovation and direct tie-ups with e-commerce players to drive higher
growth:
New launches like “Signature” cookware, upcoming new product
launches in cookers and induction cooktops will act as a strong growth lever for
TTKPT. Post opening its first fulfillment center for e-commerce in Hosur, TTKPT
plans to extend this on a pan-India basis. Direct tie-ups with major e-commerce
players along with uniform pricing will prevent channel conflicts with traditional
retailers, complementing its already strong distribution structure.
Valuation and view:
With innovative product launches, e-commerce-led growth
and ramp-up of export opportunity, TTK will post 14% revenue CAGR over FY15-
17. We expect higher capacity utilization to drive significant operating leverage,
with margins expanding 280bps over FY15-17 (driving 34% PAT CAGR). Better
asset utilization and minimal reinvestment needs should drive strong free cash
flow generation (INR1.2b free cash flow) and improve return ratios (30% RoCE)
over FY15-17E. Maintain
Buy
(PT of INR4,500—32x FY17E EPS).
BV/Sh.INR 554.2
14.7
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
21.5
51.1
7.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
5%
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.