28 July 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Capital Goods
Thermax
BSE SENSEX
27,459
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,337
TMX IN
119.2
1,315/790
0/0/11
60/58
38.0
n
CMP: INR1,035
n
TP: INR1,275 (+23%)
Buy
Operating performance in-line; intake remains constrained
TMX reported in-line operating performance for 1QFY16. Revenue grew 19% YoY
to INR10b, EBITDA margin expanded 221bp YoY to 9.1%, and net profit grew 49%
YoY to INR617m. Consolidated revenue grew 23.9% YoY to INR12.5b; net profit
grew 234% YoY to INR578m.
The Energy segment reported 25% YoY revenue growth, led by execution of the
Reliance order. The Environment business reported revenue decline of 1.8% YoY,
impacted by constrained intake in the Water segment. EBIT margin in the Energy
business expanded 440bp YoY to 11%. Environment segment EBIT margin
expanded 190bp YoY to 6.4%, largely supported by base effect. Energy segment
margins were impacted, as the Reliance project had not crossed the margin
recognition threshold; Environment segment margins were impacted by losses in
water projects in 1QFY15.
Subsidiary losses
narrowed to just INR39m, the lowest since 3QFY14. This
indicates that losses pertaining to European business have been curtailed and that
execution has possibly improved in Thermax-Babcock JV (received orders of
INR6b+ from Babcock & Wilcox overseas wins).
Standalone
order inflow
in 1QFY16 was just ~INR9b. Domestic intake has
remained constrained at just INR7b-8b in the last 6-7 quarters, reflecting that
activity on the ground is yet to pick up. The order book has shrunk 18% YoY.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 123.3/1.9
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (X)
P/BV (X)
2015 2016E 2017E
53.4
4.6
2.6
21.8
-6.0
12.1
16.3
44.1
5.4
59.7
5.2
3.3
28.1
29.2
194.1
14.5
18.0
36.8
5.3
67.6
6.6
4.4
37.3
32.8
214.6
17.4
21.5
27.7
4.8
n
n
BV/Sh.(INR) 179.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Valuation and outlook:
We maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR1,275 (30x FY17E
EPS plus INR141/share for subsidiaries).
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.