30 July 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
Tata Elxsi
BSE SENSEX
27,705
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD
b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol
‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,422
TELX IN
31.1
53.9/0.9
1758 / 551
46/130/180
801/808
55.1
CMP: INR1,731
TP: INR1,900 (+11%)
Buy
Exciting opportunities; re-rating to continue
1QFY16 results – beat on all counts; raising FY16/17 estimates
We attended Tata Elxsi’s (TELX) investor meet in Bangalore, where the top
management led by Mr Madhukar Dev, CEO, Mr Nitin Pai, Head – Marketing, and Mr
Manoj Raghavan, Head – EPD made a presentation followed by a tour of the facilities
and solutions. We have returned enthused about the strong capabilities TELX has built
over the last 25 years in the areas of technology, engineering and design. What’s most
exciting are the opportunities available to TELX not just in key verticals like
Automotive and Broadcast, but also due to the changing global landscape with the
advent of Internet of Things (IoT). Maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR1,900 (30x FY17 EPS).
1QFY16 results – Beat on all counts:
Tata Elxsi reported 1QFY16 numbers with a top-
line of INR2,435m (est. INR2,136m) as compared to INR1,908m in 1QFY15, a YoY
growth of 27.7%. Growth was led by embedded product development (EPD) division
which grew 27% YoY and contributed 80% to total revenues. Similarly, industrial
design (ID) posted strong 50% growth in 1QFY16 and contributed 12% to revenues.
Visual Computing Labs (VCL) business which now contributes a miniscule 1% of total
revenues continued to decline this quarter with a growth of -57%. Systems integration
grew 33% and contributed 8% to revenues. EBITDA grew YoY 49% and stood at
INR560m (est INR377m), EBITDA margins stood at 23% in 1QFY16 (est 19.7%) as
compared to 19.8% in 1QFY15, an expansion of 320bp YoY. Consequently, PAT grew
72% YoY and stood at INR357m (est.INR242m).
Automotive, broadcast and industrial design - key growth drivers:
Automotive,
broadcast and industrial design are key growth segments expected to drive ~25%
consolidated growth on an annual basis. With OEMs having launches planned for the
next 5 years, management highlighted that growth visibility is strong in the
automotive division. Key lever driving growth is the speed with which electronics are
getting absorbed; with rising proportion of electronics in a car being a secular trend.
Similarly, traditional broadcast model is facing disruption with the internet – Over the
Top (OTT) content bypassing traditional service providers. With the new model,
channels and broadcasters have the ability to reach directly to consumers bypassing
the traditional cable pipe. TELX is working across the ecosystem level with leading set
top box vendors, with service providers, studios and channels in this new era for
broadcast which is driving growth in this segment. On the back of strong demand for
TELX’s design skills in product and service design, ID division is winning new business
(recently won an order for branding and entire design of Kochi metro), thus providing
strong growth visibility for this division.
Valuation and view: Expect re-rating to continue:
Led by automotive, broadcast and
industrial design divisions, we expect TELX to post 25% revenue CAGR and 40% PAT
CAGR over FY15-17. We upgrade our EPS estimates by 15% and 24% to reflect strong
earnings beat and improved growth outlook. With strong set of capabilities built over
last 25 years in areas of technology, engineering and design and being a strong play
on IoT, we maintain ‘Buy’, PT INR1,900 (30x FY17).
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
2015 2016E 2017E
8.5
1.8
1.0
32.8
41.1
10.5
2.4
1.5
47.1
43.9
13.2
3.2
2.0
63.8
35.3
145.6
49.1
74.4
27.1
11.9
BV/Sh. (INR) 91.0 114.2
RoE (%)
39.3 45.9
RoCE (%)
59.8 69.6
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52.8
19.0
36.7
15.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
+24%
+46%
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.