3 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Retail
Shoppers Stop
BSE SENSEX
28,187
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,543
SHOP IN
82.2
32.9/0.5
624 / 330
3/-10/-8
29/64
32.8
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
2015 2016E 2017E
30.4
1.9
0.4
35.0
2.2
0.5
6.4
31.6
97.0
6.7
9.3
62.3
4.1
41.3
2.7
0.8
9.3
44.8
104.2
9.1
11.3
43.0
3.8
CMP: INR401
TP: INR380 (-5%)
Neutral
Double-digit SSSG comes at the cost of margins
Standalone performance highlights:
In 1QFY16, standalone sales grew 16.2% to
INR7.1b (est. INR6.9b). LTL sales grew 12.7%, with LTL volumes up 10.6%. Gross
margin contracted 200bp to 39.2% while EBITDA margin contracted 40bp to 4.6%
(est. 5.5%). EBITDA was up a modest 6.3% YoY to INR327m and missed our
estimates by 13%. Recurring PAT tripled to INR24m on an extremely favorable
base and missed our estimates by 27% (1QFY15 PAT declined 67%).
HyperCITY—operating leverage plus cost control drive 60bp EBITDA margin
expansion at store level:
HyperCITY reported sales of INR2.5b, up 3.4%, with weak
underlying SSSG performance. LTL sales posted 1.9% YoY growth and LTL volume
declined 6%. Net margin expanded 30bp to 21.2%. Store operating expenses
stayed flattish. Store EBITDA margin expanded 60bp to 6%, with underlying store
EBITDA up 22% to INR95m. HyperCITY posted a loss of INR159m (10% YoY and
37% QoQ decline in losses). We note that HyperCITY continues to reel under the
impact of low SSSG, notwithstanding the sequential improvement in store-level
EBITDA. Consistent high single-digit and low double-digit SSSG is essential for
HyperCITY to turn profitable, in our view.
Concall highlights:
(a) SHOP has reduced the “SALE” period from eight to six
weeks; will close by August 16. (b) Guidance: 2Q16 will be muted; 2Q+3Q run-rate
will be around 8% LTL growth (2Q and 3Q combined last year was around 5-6% LTL
growth).c) Activations and certain base-related variations led to gross margin
decline. d) Investment of INR600m on online platform spread over three years;
plans to increase contribution to revenue to 10% from the current 1%.
Valuation and view:
While standalone performance represents the typical
“SSSG
v/s margin”
dilemma confronting traditional retailers, HyperCITY continues to
remain a drag on consolidated profitability. We cut our estimates 17-18% as we
bake in muted margin expansion guidance and maintain
Neutral,
with a revised
SOTP-based target price of INR380 (17x standalone EV/EBITDA; 0.5x P/sales for
HyperCITY).
Adj.EPS(INR) 4.9
EPS Gr. (%) 7.9
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
93.1
5.3
8.0
82.0
4.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
-18%
-7%
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029/
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.