11 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Agri
Jain Irrigation
BSE SENSEX
27,866
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val,INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr .(%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
61.6
7.9
0.9
1.9
28.8
51.1
3.8
9.0
37.7
1.4
66.7
9.0
1.8
3.9
108.6
53.8
7.4
10.5
18.1
1.3
76.2
10.3
3.2
7.0
80.4
60.2
12.3
12.8
10.0
1.2
n
n
S&P CNX
8,462
JI IN
462.4
32.4/0.5
100/55
-4/6/-38
312/4,228
71.3
n
CMP: INR70
n
TP: INR84 (+20%)
Buy
Results below estimates; food processing stake sale set to unlock value
Results below estimates, led by subdued food processing and MIS growth:
JI
reported overall revenue of INR15.8b (est. of INR17.1b) as against INR15.5b in
1QFY15, marking a 2.2% YoY growth. The growth was led by piping business
(21.9% YoY); MIS business grew 5.1% and food processing de-grew 3.1%.
Domestic MIS business grew 9.6% during the quarter; however, overall MIS
business grew by only 5.1% on account of a 38% decline in MIS exports.
Margins expand on the back of lower polymer prices:
EBITDA stood at INR2.2b
(est. of INR2.2b) in 1QFY16, with EBITDA margins at 13.7% (est. of 12.9%), an
expansion of 80bp—primarily led by gross margin expansion of 160bp YoY.
Polymer prices, which are inputs for piping and MIS businesses, declined ~5%
QoQ—driving gross margin higher. During the quarter, forex loss stood at
INR247m due to a 2% depreciation in USD:INR. Consequently, adj. PAT for the
quarter stood at INR390m (est. of INR418m) as against INR203m in 1QFY15.
Stake sale in food processing set to unlock vale:
The management highlighted
that the process for subsidiarization and 25% stake sale of food processing
business is on track, with transaction finalization likely by October 2015. We
believe 25% stake sale in food processing will unlock value for Jain Irrigation and
will set a valuation benchmark for the food processing business, along with paring
debt at the parent level; this is expected to be a near-term trigger for the stock.
Valuation and view:
The management is confident of double-digit revenue
growth in FY16, lead by 15% growth in MIS, 20% in food processing and 20% in
Piping; however, the first-half is expected to be muted (with growth likely to be
back-ended). Additionally, the management is confident of INR3b of debt
retirement in FY16. We cut our EBITDA estimates by 3%/7% for FY16/FY17. Due
to high financial leverage, our EPS estimates for FY16 and FY17 are lower by 13%
and 16%, respectively. Maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR84 (12x FY17E EPS).
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
-16%
-16%
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.