13 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
Jindal Steel & Power
BSE SENSEX
27,550
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD
b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
8,356
JSP IN
914.9
62.2/1.0
301 / 68
-17/-49/-81
CMP: INR68
TP: INR75 (+10%)
Neutral
Focus shifts to core business and cost management
The operating performance was impressive despite severe steel pricing pressure.
Consolidated EBITDA was 8% above estimates at INR10.2b (-39% YoY), helped by
better performance of standalone business (EBITDA at INR7.1b v/s est. of INR6.7b) on
extensive cost cutting and significant reduction in losses of various assets at global
ventures. Jindal power, however, disappointed because the commercial generation
was far less than the gross generation reported by CEA. Generation at EUP1 declined
due to shutting of 2x250MW units, while power was generated by other units that are
yet to achieve commercial commissioning. Interest cost rose 10% QoQ to INR8.5b.
Adjusted loss after tax was INR3.4b.
For the first time, we noticed urgency on the part of the management to set the
house in order and accept reality. Sale of non-core assets, once viewed strategic,
has started. USD300m was raised by Aircraft sale (USD70m), settlement with
Bolivia government (USD46m) and sale of Botswana mining assets. Massive cost
saving exercise is underway by way of cutting marketing budget and re-
negotiations with vendors and contractors. To lower transportation cost, JSP has
floated a transportation company to break the pricing power in logistics.
We believe that JSP has the potential to bounce back if the management keeps its
focus on cost management and sale of non-core assets. Both steel and power
assets are strategically located in mineral-rich states of Chhattisgarh and Odisha,
and the demand growth for both the assets is at inflection point in India.
As the current earnings don’t reflect earnings potential of assets over their life, we
have adopted a combination of normalized margin and replacement cost
approach to value the company. As per the calculations, we arrive at INR75/share
(Exhibit
12
on page 7). We resume coverage with Neutral.
Avg Val,INRm/Vol ‘000 1279/8261
Free float (%)
38.7
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
202.2 198.0 223.5
54.8
6.3
6.9
39.1
-24.3
-26.6
49.6
-16.0
-17.5
-66.8 -483.8 -34.2
217.3 188.4 168.5
3.0
4.7
9.8
-13.1
1.6
-2.6
0.4
-9.8
3.1
-3.9
0.4
EV/EBITDA(X) 0.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.