14 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Automobiles
Amara Raja Batteries
BSE SENSEX
28,067
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,519
AMRJ IN
170.8
995/527
10/17/73
214/279
47.9
CMP: INR972
TP: INR1,099 (13%)
Buy
Revenues disappoint, but EBITDA margins surprise at 18.2% (v/s est.
17.6%)—highest since 4QFY10
AMRJ’s in-line PAT at INR1.2b was driven by strong revenue growth in the automotive
segment and favorable lead prices. FY16 is an inflection year for AMRJ—with new
capacities driving top-line (~22% CAGR) and benign lead prices driving margins
(+240bp by FY17), translating into ~34% EPS CAGR (FY15-17) after muted FY15. Stable
competitive environment, significant FCF generation (~INR7b over FY16-17) and
improving RoE (4pp by FY17 to ~31%)—coupled with potential shift from unorganized
to organized players due to GST—would continue to drive stock re-rating.
n
Net sales grew 11.3% YoY (+7% QoQ) to INR11.5b (v/s est. INR12.5b), driven by
~20% revenue growth in auto (OEM saw higher single digit growth and
replacement was up by ~25%) and 17% growth in 2W (OEM/Replacement both
up by 17% YoY). However, telecom saw lower single digit growth and UPS/
inverter battery segments de-grew of 7%/8% YoY.
n
RM Cost declined 260bp YoY (-30bp QoQ) to 64.2% on account of lower lead cost.
n
EBITDA margins improved 110bp YoY (70bp QoQ) to 18.2% (v/s est. of 17.6%) in
1QFY16, driven by lower RM cost benefit. EBITDA at ~INR2b (v/s est. INR2.2b)
grew ~19% YoY (10.8% QoQ).
n
Lower tax rate of 31.8% boosted adj. PAT to INR1.2b, up 16% YoY (15% QoQ).
Takeaways from management interaction:
a) Telecom market share stable at 60%
despite EXIDE’s market share rising to ~22% in 1QFY16 v/s ~8% in 1QFY15 and AUTO
replacement market share at 27% (v/s 25% last year), b) Lead cost at INR129-130 per
kg (v/s INR132 in 4QFY15, INR140 in 3QFY15); the management expects lead prices to
rise from 2QFY16. c) Upcoming 2W capacity to have 1-2 dedicated lines for HMSI; the
company is also negotiating with other 2W OEMs. d) Capex of INR6b in FY16 (INR3.5b
for tubular battery, INR0.6b for LVRLA and INR0.5b for 2W capacity expansion, and
the rest for regular maintenance).
Valuation and view:
We value AMRJ at ~25x FY17E EPS of INR44 to factor in for
higher visibility of sustained superior competitive positioning and capital efficiencies.
Buy
with a TP of ~INR1,099.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 166.1/2.6
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
42.1
7.1
4.2
24.3
12.3
99.5
27.2
37.6
39.9
9.8
50.0
8.9
5.2
30.4
24.7
123.3
27.2
37.8
32.0
7.9
62.3
12.0
7.5
44.0
44.9
157.7
31.3
42.6
22.1
6.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
3%
3%
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Jay Shah
(Jay.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.