17 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Power Finance Corporation
BSE SENSEX
27,878
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
NII
PPP
Adj. PAT
Adj.EPS(INR)
EPS Gr.(%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
Adj.RoAA(%)
RoE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Div. Yld(%)
5.1
1.0
3.8
4.5
0.8
4.8
3.9
0.7
5.5
2015
89.6
92.2
62.8
47.6
12.1
245.5
3.1
20.7
23.4
2016E
100.3
105.2
71.1
53.9
13.3
284.6
3.1
20.3
25.5
2017E
115.2
120.8
82.0
62.1
15.3
329.7
3.1
20.2
25.5
S&P CNX
8,477
POWF IN
1,320.0
318.1/4.9
316/219
-8/-8/-16
737/2,698
27.2
CMP: INR241
TP: INR330 (37%)
Buy
Growth moderates; RL increases to 10% of loan book; trades at 0.7x BV
n
Power Finance Corporation’s 1QFY16 reported PAT grew 9% YoY and flat
sequentially to INR15.77b (in line). However, adjusted for forex losses, PAT
grew 6.6% YoY. Key operating metrics: (a) Loan growth of 13.4% YoY (2%
QoQ), (b) NIM of 5.11% (up 20bp QoQ due to reduction in cost of funds), (c)
GNPA/NNPA at 1.25%/1.02%. Forex-related MTM losses were INR730m.
n
GNPAs increased 16bp QoQ to 1.25% as loans worth INR4b slipped into NPL.
Outstanding restructured loans (RL) from private sector stood at INR219b
(59%+ of private sector loans), and were up INR13b+ QoQ.
n
Loan growth of 2% QoQ and 13.4% YoY was driven by private sector (19%
YoY; 1.3% QoQ); share of private sector borrowers in the overall loan mix
remained stable at 16.6% (16.7% in 4QFY15). Growth in sanctions was 95%
YoY; however, disbursements de-grew 6.4% during the quarter.
n
CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) provision of INR1.5b for FY15-16 was
made during the quarter itself (at 2% of last three-year average PAT),
resulting in an increase in operating expense.
Valuation and view:
Despite the underlying stress in the power segment, POWF
has managed to generate steady earnings CAGR of +20% over FY09-15. While
RBI’s move to grant regulatory forbearance to banks for infrastructure lending
can exert pressure on profitability over long term, near-term growth and
profitability should remain healthy—led by (a) outstanding sanctions of INR1.53t
(70% of outstanding loan book), (b) massive demand-supply mismatch in power
sector, and (c) fragile health of SEBs (enables pricing power). Moreover, with a
stable government, infrastructure bottlenecks are likely to be reduced, which will
be positive for growth and asset quality. POWF trades at 0.7x FY17E BV (below
LPA of 1.3x). Acceleration in reforms could be a catalyst for re-rating.
Buy.
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.