Financials 19 August 2015
Sector Update | | Sector Update
Financials
RBI grants license to new niche category of banks—Payment banks
Financial inclusion to get a big push | Not a threat to incumbents
RBI has granted “in-principle” Payment Bank license to 11 applicants (out of 41).
Considering the new business model, RBI chose players from different business
streams like a) Telecom (Airtel, Vodafone), b) large conglomerates (Reliance, ABNL,
Chola, Mahindra (TechM)), c) individuals (Dillip Shanghvi and Vijay Sharma (Paytm)),
d) focused Business Correspondent (BC) and payment players like FINO and e)
Department of Post and NSDL. RBI clearly specified that licenses will remain on tap.
Some of the successful applicants have large incumbents like SBIN, MMFS and KMB
as partner.
With the limited success (partially due to high-cost model) of incumbents in
expanding reach and promoting financial inclusion, RBI floated the idea of Payment
Banks; this category of banks is unlikely to cause major disruption for existing
banks—in fact, it can be an enabler to promote financial inclusion (generate PSL) for
incumbents.
Our interaction with some of the major applicants suggests that profitability of the
business model will largely depend upon a) use of technology and cost of operations
(cost/customer is likely to be high as maximum permissible deposit size per customer
is INR0.1m), b) cost of deposits and c) generation of fees via remittances/acting as
BCs for large banks. Spreads are likely to be low as a) these banks are only allowed
to invest in G Sec (75% of NDTL) and rest in bank deposits with maturity of less than
one year and b) cost of deposits are likely to be more than 4% (minimum savings rate
in the country). The business model will largely hinder on high-volume and low-value
transactions. RBI has capped leverage to 33x in this business. Thus, despite low ROA,
ROEs can be at reasonable levels in this business.
Exhibit 1: Successful payment bank applicants and their strategic tie-ups
Payment Bank
Aditya Birla Nuvo
Airtel M Commerce
Cholamandalam Distribution Services
Department of Posts
Mr. Dilip Shanghvi
Fino PayTech
NSDL
Reliance Industries
Tech Mahindra
Mr. Vijay Sharma
Vodafone m-pesa
RIL (70%)
Tech Mahindra (50%)
SBI (30%)
Mahindra Finance (50%)
In talks with IFC
One97 - PayTm
No tie-ups announced yet
Source: MOSL, RBI, Company
Partner 1
Aditya Birla Nuvo (51%)
Airtel (80.1%)
Partner 2
Idea (49%)
Kotak (19.9%)
Comments
Open to explore tie-ups
No tie-ups announced yet
In talks with Telenor, IDFC
No tie-ups announced yet
No tie-ups announced yet
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
19 August 2015
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
1
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Financials | Sector Update
Key takeaways from interaction with industry participants
Our interaction with a few Payment Bank applicants suggests that business model is likely
to be unique for each entity; however, on aggregate basis, maximum reliance is on high
volumes to generate profitability. Spreads are likely to be limited due to regulation to
invest float monies into G-Sec (75% of NDTL) and/or below one-year maturity of bank
deposits. With negligible risk on the asset side, credit cost is unlikely to be meaningful.
ROEs will depend on a) ability to generate transactions (fees), b) cost of operations (best
use of technology) and c) leverage (max 33x allowed)
Interest spread on wallet balance not a key driver of profitability
Payment Banks would like to incentivize their customers to keep higher
balances in the payment wallets (deposit accounts); thus, interest on deposits
offered is expected to be more than 4% (current savings account rate in the
system). Depending on the banks’ aggressiveness, spreads are likely to be 0.5-
2% (difference between G-sec and interest paid to depositors)
Transactions based income is likely to be the key ROE enabler
Rather than rely on a conventional credit spread-based business model,
Payments Banks will focus on transaction-based business model—something
that BCs, mobile companies and retailers understand well; in simple terms,
business model will emerge from the volume of payments they make. For every
payment made, the bank will levy a convenience charge on the consumer/bank
(for acting as BCs).
While there are no official estimates for market size, one of the entities
suggested that INR3t-4t worth of transactions take place annually—through
different mediums such as bank, post and physical. Payment Banks would
initially aim to attract these customers; as these banks can charge 1-1.5% (can
be lower initially in a bid to acquire customers) fees per transaction, we believe
the industry size would be to the tune of ~INR50b (INR3-4t *1.5%).
Other operating activities to boost revenues
Sale of other financial products, e.g. insurance and micro-finance
Cash-out points for payments, international remittances (Western Union,
MoneyGram and such)
Cash collection and disbursement for corporate (e.g. utlilties)
19 August 2015
2

Financials | Sector Update
Guidelines for licensing of Payments Banks
(From the final RBI guidelines published in November 2014)
Objective:
Increase financial inclusion by providing (a) small savings accounts
and (ii) payment/remittance services to migrant labor, low-income households,
small businesses, other unorganized sector entities and other users by enabling
high-volume low-value transactions in deposits and payments/remittance
services in a secured technology-driven environment.
Key eligibility criteria for promoters:
(a) Sound track record of at least five
years, (b) existing non-bank PPIs, NBFCs, corporate BCs, mobile telephone
companies, supermarket chains, companies, real sector cooperatives, and public
sector entities. Even banks can take an equity stake in Payment Banks to the
extent permitted.
Requirements
Minimum paid-up equity capital of INR1b
Minimum CAR: 15%; Tier 1: 7.5%
Leverage ratio of not less than 35, i.e. leverage cannot exceed 33.33x
Promoter equity contribution of at least 40% for the first five years
Foreign shareholding as per existing FDI policy for Private Banks
Scope of activities
Acceptance of demand deposits (only CASA), which would be covered by
DICGC. Payments Banks would initially be restricted to hold a maximum
balance of INR100k/customer. Based on performance, the RBI can enhance
the limit.
Payments and remittance services through various channels
Issuance of ATM/debit cards; but cannot issue credit cards
Functioning as business correspondent for other banks
Distribution services—MF, insurance, etc.
Internet banking activities
Deployment of funds
Cannot undertake lending activities
Apart from CRR, Payment Banks required to invest a minimum 75% of
deposits in SLR-eligible Gsec with maturity of up to one year.
May keep a maximum 25% in deposits with other Scheduled Commercial
Banks for operational purposes and liquidity management
Access to CBLO market for temporary liquidity management
Other conditions
Payment Banks cannot set up subsidiaries to undertake NBFC business.
Other financial and non-financial activities of the promoters, if any, should
be kept distinctly ring-fenced and not co-mingled with the banking and
financial services business of Payment Banks.
Payment Banks would be required to use the word “Payment Bank” in their
name to differentiate them from other banks
19 August 2015
3

Financials | Sector Update
Exhibit 2: Brief profile of successful Payment Bank applicants
Payment Bank
Description
Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited
(Idea Cellular is a part of the Aditya Birla group) As per the proposed structure, ABNL will be the
promoter of the Payment Bank, holding a 51% stake. Idea Cellular Limited, an Aditya Birla Group
company where ABNL is the largest promoter shareholder, will be holding the balance 49% stake.
Airtel M Commerce Services
Mobile money business owned by telecom operator Bharti Airtel; last week, Airtel acquired a
Mumbai-based mobile payment startup YTS for an undisclosed amount and appointed Mr.
Limited
Manish Khera (MD & CFO at YTS) as the new CEO of Airtel Money. The company hasn’t disclosed
how many users it has in India; but as per the last available data, Airtel Money had 38 million
transactions and 1.7 million active customers (transactions of INR12.4b) for the quarter ended
March 31, 2014.
Cholamandalam Distribution
It is a 100% subsidiary of Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co; it plans to initially tap its
own customers under the ‘payment bank’ model. The company has highlighted that it will
Services Ltd
explore tie-ups.
Department of Posts
India Post is a government-operated postal system in India. As of Mar-14, it had ~155k post
offices—of which ~90% are in rural areas.
Dilip Shantilal Shanghvi
Founder of Sun Pharmaceuticals; Mr. Sudhir Valia, also a director at Sun Pharmaceuticals, is
believed to have picked a 50% stake in the ‘payment bank’ business Pay Point India. Mr. Valia
held Uninor shares as its Indian partner via Lakshdeep Investments & Finance Pvt. Ltd, and later
sold the stake to Uninor’s parent company Telenor.
Fino PayTech Limited
Backed by the World Bank’s IFC and Blackstone, it acquired Nokia Money in 2012. Fino launched
“Alpha Payment Services” in 2013. Mr. Rishi Gupta was recently appointed the CEO of Fino Pay,
which has a deal with white-labeled ATM provider Tata Indicash.
National Securities
NSDL is India’s first and the largest depository, which handles most of the securities, held and
settled in dematerialized form in the Indian capital market.
Depository Limited
Reliance Industries Limited
Owns telecom operator Reliance Jio and received a prepaid payments license from the RBI in
November 2013, but hasn’t used it yet.
Vodafone m-pesa Limited
Mobile money transfer and payment services business owned by Vodafone India. The
management has indicated that Payment Bank license will be a huge enabler to allow cash-out
without having a bank at the back-end and the company won’t have to depend on a bank for
KYC.
Vijay Shekhar Sharma
Founder of mobile payments and commerce company Paytm, which received a semi-closed
prepaid wallets license from the RBI in August 2013. The company said it has reached 100 million
wallet users, and 75 million transactions per month. Alibaba’s payments business Alipay owns
25% in Paytm.
Tech Mahindra Limited
Tech Mahindra is the sixth largest Indian IT company. The company believes the Payment
Banking license is a logical extension to its plans in the payment industry, one of the growth
sectors identified by the company. It is likely to partner group financial services company
Mahindra Mahindra Financial services Ltd.
Source: MOSL, Company
19 August 2015
4

Financials | Sector Update
Exhibit 3: Financials:
Valuation metrics
63.7
Rating
ICICIBC*
HDFCB
AXSB
KMB*
YES
IIB
DCBB
FB
JKBK
SIB
Private Aggregate
SBIN (cons)*
PNB
BOI
BOB
CBK
UNBK
OBC
INBK
CRPBK
ANDB
IDBI
DBNK
Public Aggregate
HDFC*
LICHF
DEWH
IHFL
IDFC
RECL
REPCO
POWF
SHTF
MMFS
BAF
NBFC Aggregate
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
CMP
Mcap
EPS (INR)
FY17
25.7
59.2
43.6
27.4
76.4
52.1
9.4
7.1
17.3
3.1
31.6
26.8
39.4
24.6
66.0
46.2
63.2
31.7
21.9
22.8
19.7
13.6
44
43
66
75
12
76
29
62
81
18
267
P/E (x)
BV (INR)
P/BV (x)
FY16
1.82
3.79
2.54
3.86
2.36
3.33
2.25
1.36
0.75
0.80
2.85
1.16
0.76
0.43
1.14
0.59
0.67
0.37
0.53
0.38
0.43
0.44
0.35
0.80
4.87
2.71
1.40
3.84
1.06
0.85
5.10
0.82
1.87
2.36
4.01
2.78
FY17
1.53
3.27
2.18
3.37
1.99
2.88
1.95
1.22
0.68
0.74
2.49
1.04
0.69
0.40
1.04
0.54
0.60
0.33
0.49
0.34
0.39
0.40
0.32
0.73
3.82
2.28
1.22
3.34
0.96
0.71
4.30
0.71
1.64
2.11
3.44
2.43
RoA (%)
FY16
1.56
1.89
1.77
1.18
1.69
2.03
1.07
1.07
0.85
0.47
0.70
0.57
0.23
0.62
0.46
0.56
0.62
0.56
0.54
0.55
0.58
0.36
2.60
1.50
1.27
3.91
1.75
3.22
2.16
3.06
2.18
2.32
3.01
FY17
1.58
1.86
1.80
1.49
1.75
2.09
1.15
1.12
0.92
0.59
0.76
0.70
0.36
0.67
0.53
0.64
0.69
0.67
0.64
0.62
0.69
0.44
2.60
1.56
1.29
3.79
1.83
3.23
2.12
3.12
2.48
2.47
2.91
RoE (%)
FY16
15.0
18.4
18.0
13.9
19.9
18.0
11.8
12.0
10.7
8.2
11.7
9.2
5.6
11.9
9.4
11.7
11.1
8.7
12.3
10.3
9.5
7.7
23.6
20.3
15.6
32.3
8.8
22.9
17.5
20.3
14.7
14.2
19.1
FY17
15.6
19.2
18.4
14.5
21.3
16.8
14.1
13.6
12.1
10.5
13.0
11.6
9.2
12.8
10.9
13.7
12.6
10.9
14.7
12.2
11.9
10.0
24.4
21.4
17.3
33.5
9.8
22.9
19.2
20.2
16.5
15.6
18.3
(INR) (USDb) FY16
304
27.7 21.8
1,081 42.5 49.1
555
20.6 36.7
711
20.4 20.3
774
5.1
60.6
957
8.7
41.8
139
0.6
6.9
67
1.8
5.7
102
0.8
14.1
23
0.5
2.2
128.7
278
33.0 25.5
168
4.9
19.5
177
1.9
22.5
209
1.5
20.7
342
2.8
51.2
212
2.1
35.4
174
0.8
50.8
149
1.1
23.6
53
0.1
16.5
77
0.7
17.8
70
1.8
14.4
45
0.4
9.7
51.1
1,257 31.1
38
494
3.9
34
500
1.1
53
800
4.6
63
142
3.5
10
257
4.0
63
774
0.8
25
235
4.9
54
861
3.1
65
263
2.3
15
5,386
4.5
214
63.8
FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
11.0 9.0
132
150
22.0 18.3 285
330
15.1 12.7 218
254
35.1 26.0 184
211
12.8 10.1 328
389
22.9 18.4 287
332
20.2 14.8
62
71
11.8 9.5
50
55
7.2
5.9
136
150
10.3 7.4
28
31
18.7 15.6
10.5 8.4
229
255
8.6
6.3
220
244
7.9
4.5
412
444
10.1 8.5
182
201
6.7
5.2
578
629
6.0
4.6
317
355
3.4
2.8
478
526
6.3
4.7
280
304
3.2
2.4
141
158
4.3
3.4
180
196
4.8
3.5
157
173
4.6
3.3
130
141
8.6
6.7
21.4 16.7 167
192
14.5 11.6 182
217
9.5
7.6
358
408
12.8 10.7 208
239
14.5 12.3 107
116
4.1
3.4
302
360
31.3 26.5 152
180
4.4
3.8
285
330
13.2 10.6 460
524
17.5 14.3 111
125
25.2 20.2 1,342 1,566
15.6 13.2
*Multiples adj. for value of key ventures/Investments; For ICICI Bank and HDFC Ltd BV is adjusted for investments in subsidiaries
19 August 2015
5

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Office Address : 21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
19 August 2015
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
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