21 August 2015
1QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Agri
Monsanto India
BSE SENSEX
27,366
Bloomberg
S&P CNX
8,300
MCHM IN
CMP: INR2,866
TP: INR3,200 (+12%)
Buy
Earnings recovery to be back-ended; 2HFY16 to see a rebound in growth
Results below expectations:
MCHM reported overall revenue of INR2,633m (est. of
INR3,108m) in 1QFY16 as against INR2,648m in 1QFY15, marking a YoY de-growth of
0.6%. EBITDA declined to INR712m (est. of INR975m) and margins contracted from
31.3% in 1QFY15 to 27% (est. of 32.3%) in 1QFY16. Our interaction with the
management suggests that margin contraction is largely on account of price correction
of ~20% in glyphosate selling price which led to inventory losses. Consequently, PAT
de-grew 11.6%— from INR710m in 1QFY15 to INR628m (est. of INR886m) in 1QFY16.
Earnings recovery to be back-ended; 2HFY16 to see a rebound in growth:
1QFY16
witnessed ~10% volume de-growth in corn seeds as a result of lower acreage;
however, due to higher share of new high-value products, value growth in corn seeds
was largely flat YoY. The management highlighted that glyphosate has seen a price
correction of ~20%; however, price correction led to strong volume growth (especially
in June)—leading to a minor overall decline in value growth. Our interaction with the
management suggests corn seeds as well as glyphosate are experiencing low growth
owing to below-normal monsoon in July 2015 (on a YoY basis). Accordingly, we expect
2QFY16 to witness flat growth and -5% margins. However, we expect growth to
rebound in 2HFY16—led by favorable base of glyphosate revenues and favorable
outlook for corn seed sales in Rabi.
Higher contribution from newly launched hybrids to drive margins higher:
Margins in
newly launched hybrids are higher as compared to old products by ~500 bps. We
believe improvement in mix in favor of newly launched hybrids will drive overall
margin improvement to the extent of 300bp in FY17.
Valuation and view
We cut our EPS estimates by 25% for FY16 and 19% for FY17 to factor in the impact of
weak monsoon, lower corn acreages and lower profitability in the glyphosate division.
Maintain
Buy
with a TP of INR3,200 (35x FY17E EPS).
Equity Shares (m)
17.3
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD
46.3/0.8
b)
52-Week Range (INR) 3,756/2,000
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
-4/-9/30
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr (%)
2015
5.6
1.2
1.1
61.6
-17.6
2016E 2017E
5.6
1.2
1.2
68.6
11.3
225.4
31.0
34.5
42.0
12.8
6.7
1.6
1.6
92.1
34.3
245.3
39.1
43.5
31.3
11.7
138/46
27.9
BV/Sh.INR 216.9
RoE (%)
29.6
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
36.0
46.8
13.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
19%
8%
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.