21 September 2015
Update | Sector: Logistics
Container Corporation
BSE Sensex
26,193
S&P CNX
7,977
CMP: INR1,380
TP: INR1,702 (+23%)
Upgrade to Buy
Key beneficiary of DFC and India’s logistics potential
Massive long-term potential intact; stock correction an opportunity;
upgrade to Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
CCRI IN
195.0
322.9/5.1
1944/1204
-7/-5/6
366
38.2
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
D. Yield (%)
25.5
3.6
17.2
1.0
28.1
3.3
18.7
0.9
20.8
3.0
14.3
1.2
61.5
14.0
10.5
54.1
11.7
385.5
14.7
18.2
30.2
63.9
12.8
9.6
49.0
-9.4
419.8
12.2
15.8
30.2
71.3
16.4
12.9
66.2
35.0
466.0
14.9
18.6
30.2
We believe weak port volumes and capacity constraints are near-term hiccups for
and the key trigger for Container Corporation of India Ltd. (CCRI) continues to be
the completion of Western Dedicated Freight Corridor or Western DFC (phased
commissioning from 2018), which will accelerate containerization and improve
efficiency and profitability.
Despite private players’ entry in 2006, CCRI has maintained its leadership in
container rail transportation with ~75% market share. Long-term growth
acceleration could come from its pre-emptive capex on multi modal parks.
Post our rating downgrade on May 30, 2015 (Click
here to access detailed report);
CCRI has underperformed the index by 19% and we believe the current stock
price offers an attractive entry point. Our DCF-based fair value of INR1,702/sh
implies 23% upside; upgrade to Buy.
DFC completion a key trigger; to drive efficiency and volume growth
DFC work is in full swing and phased commissioning is expected from 2018
and full commissioning by 2019.
DFC will (a) offer adequate capacity for container rail movement, (b) enable
double stacking and (c) double train length, which will increase efficiency
and profitability of container train operators like CCRI.
We expect container volume growth to be robust for CCRI in the long term,
with expectation of (a) competitive haulage rates (which will help regain
volumes from the road sector) and (b) domestic GDP growth (which will
further boost EXIM trade volumes).
MMLP to evolve CCRI business model; high market share gives scale
CCRI is investing in 15 multi modal logistics parks (MMLP), which it believes
gives an advantage to attract volumes for its container trains.
CCRI’s favorable depot locations (legacy benefit) help it to maintain high
market share and provide scale (10x the size of next largest competitor).
MMLP operations will transform CCRI’s business model from ‘only container
transporter’ to ‘integrated logistics service provider’.
Model FY15-18 volume CAGR at 9% and EBITDA CAGR at 11%
While the expected economic recovery will benefit the logistics sector, we
believe CCRI’s growth will be higher—given its scale and likely
disproportionate benefit from investments in MMLPs.
We model CCRI’s volume CAGR at 9% (EXIM at 10%), leading to EBITDA
CAGR of 11%. Competitive haulage rate for DFC could further boost the
volumes as freight share will move from road to rail.
Upgrade to Buy
Our DCF-based (WACC 12%, TGR 5%) fair value of CCRI comes to
INR1,702/sh, implying a 23% upside. The stock trades at 20.8x FY17E EPS of
INR66.2 and has a dividend yield of ~1%.
Upgrade to Buy.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Container Corporation
Exhibit 1: Post private player entry, after initial market share loss, CCRI regained market
share in recent years and maintains it at ~75%
Concor share (%)
5
7
15
22
Private CTOs share (%)
25
27
25
24
26
95
94
85
78
75
73
75
76
74
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 2: Indicative map of DFC’s route – Western corridor DFC completion will be the key
trigger for CCRI’s long term volume and profitability performance
*~80% route is parallel to the existing rail track
Source: PTI, PMO, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Western Corridor of India contributed to ~75% of CCRI’s FY15 volumes
Volume (TEUs)
As a % of total
15 14 12 12 12 9 10 11 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 36 36 38 38 37 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 4 5 13 14 12 11 12 6 5 5
Western
North Western
North Central
Northern
Central
Eastern
Southern
South
Cetral
Source: Company, MOSL
21 September 2015
2

Container Corporation
Exhibit 4: Key design features of DFC route and infrastructure – (a) Speed, (b) Double
stacking and (c) 2x length will improve asset turn and profitability for container train
operators
Source: DFCCIL, MOSL
Exhibit 5: Planned multi modal logistics parks (MMLP) by Concor; expected to help to attract volumes
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Location
Nagaulapalli
Khatuwas
Sriperumbudur (Road Based)
Pantnagar (JVC with SIIDCUL)
Vallarpadam (Road based)
Vishakapatnam
Naya Raipur
Nagpur
Jharsuguda
Haridwar
Swarupganj
Vadodara
Kila Raipur
Parjang
Duburi
State
Telangana
Rajasthan
Tamilnadu
Uttarakhand
Kerala
Andhra Pradesh
Chattisgarh
Maharashtra
Odisha
Uttarakhand
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Punjab
Odisha
Odisha
Area (Acres)
80
280
50
40
20
100
100
107
30
35
400
130
150
50
50
Status
Working as DCT & PFT in 17 acres
Working as Double Stacking Hub, 20 acres developed
Commissioning by Dec, 2014
Commissioning by Mar, 2015
Commissioning by Jun, 2015
Working as road based CFS – Ph I; developing 10 acres
Commissioning by Dec, 2015
Commissioning by Dec, 2015
Commissioning by Dec, 2015
Approached BHEL for land transfer
Land Acquisition – Sec 6 notification
Majority land acquired, construction started
JVC with CONWARE acquiring land
Land being identified by ASRL & IDCO
Land being identified by ASRL & IDCO
Source: Company, MOSL
21 September 2015
3

Container Corporation
Exhibit 6: Model volume CAGR at 9%, with upside risk from pickup in EXIM trade
Volumes (million TEUs)
EXIM
Domestic
Total
3.6
2.6
0.5
2.6
0.5
2.6
0.4
2.9
0.5
3.1
0.5
3.2
0.5
0.5
4.1
0.6
2.4
0.5
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.5
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 7: Capex intensity to remain high…
Capex (INRb)
9.4
5.9
4.6
3.2
2.2
3.1 3.1
2.3
10.3 10.1 10.0
Exhibit 8: FCF improvement to be back-ended
FCF (INRb)
5.5
3.3 3.2
3.9
3.2
1.6
2.3
1.1
7.0
4.9
5.1
4.3
4.8
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 9: Return ratios to remain subdued in the near term, led by investments in MMLP
57.0
55.0
46.0
42.2
RoE (%)
42.4
RoCE (%)
39.1
33.8
14.4
25.3
29.9
14.7
22.6
19.4
25.5
12.2
30.1
14.9
33.3
16.0
19.0
16.5
15.8
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
21 September 2015
4

Container Corporation
Click here to access our
detailed report
(dated March 9, 2015)
Valuation and View
CCRI is a direct play on the upcoming large rail infrastructure (DFCs), revival in
domestic economic growth and higher containerization.
Key factors to watch out for: (a) EXIM growth trend, (b) expansion of port
capacities (JNPT in the near term) and (b) completion of DFCs.
Key risks include: (a) Lower-than-expected GDP growth, (b) a sharp increase in
haulage rates, (c) delay in completion of DFCs and (d) any increase in export-
import imbalance.
Given the debt-free balance sheet, we expect the dividend payout (currently at
25%) to increase in the next few years as it nears the end of its ongoing large
capex cycle (which is funded entirely through equity).
Our DCF-based (WACC 12%, TGR 5%) fair value of CCRI comes to INR1,702/sh,
implying a 23% upside.
The stock trades at 20.8x FY17E EPS of INR66.2 and has a dividend yield of ~1%.
Upgrade to Buy.
FY17
16.4
28%
12.3
(3.2)
1.7
(10.1)
4.9
0.9
4.4
FY18
19.2
17%
14.6
(3.8)
1.6
(10.0)
7.0
0.8
5.6
FY19
23.6
23%
18.6
(4.9)
2.4
(10.0)
11.2
0.7
8.0
FY20
28.2
19%
22.7
(6.0)
2.9
(10.0)
15.0
0.6
9.5
FY21
33.9
20%
27.7
(8.2)
0.6
(4.3)
22.0
0.6
12.5
FY22
38.9
15%
32.4
(9.6)
0.5
(3.8)
26.1
0.5
13.2
FY23
43.6
12%
36.8
(10.9)
0.5
(3.0)
30.2
0.5
13.6
FY24
47.9
10%
40.9
(12.1)
0.4
(2.4)
33.9
0.4
13.7
FY25
52.7
10%
45.5
(13.4)
0.5
(2.2)
37.6
0.4
13.6
Exhibit 10: Concor DCF Valuation Summary—We value CCRI at INR1,702
INR Billion
EBITDA
YoY Chg (%)
EBIT
Less: Tax
Less: WC Changes
Less: Capex
FCFF
Discount factor
Discounted FCFF
DCF Summary (INRb)
NPV
TGR
NPV of TV
Enterprise Value
Net Debt / (Cash)
Implied Mcap
Per share Value (INR)
CMP
Upside (%)
FY15
14.0
9.9
(2.6)
1.1
(9.4)
3.1
FY16
12.8
-9%
9.0
(2.9)
1.5
(10.3)
1.1
94
5%
203
297
(34)
332
1,702
1,380
23%
Fair Value Sensitivity to TGR and WACC
WACC (%)
1,702
13%
12%
11%
4%
1,377
1,563
1,805
5%
1,478
1,702
2,005
6%
1,607
1,888
2,284
7%
1,780
2,148
2,702
10%
2,131
2,431
2,881
3,631
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 11: Concor – Key Assumptions
Y/E March
Volumes - TEU
EXIM
Domestic
Total
Volumes (% Share)
EXIM
Domestic
Total
Realization (INR/TEU)
EXIM
Domestic
Total
FY10
1,882
539
2,421
28,985
8,072
37,306
15,399
14,977
15,408
FY11
2,019
544
2,562
29,915
8,367
38,992
14,820
15,387
15,218
FY12
2,136
468
2,604
32,666
7,954
41,009
15,293
16,983
15,746
FY13
2,152
434
2,586
35,398
8,662
44,450
16,449
19,975
17,191
FY14
2,361
507
2,869
38,900
11,332
51,085
16,473
22,344
17,808
FY15
2,621
489
3,111
44,412
11,325
55,737
16,942
23,141
17,917
FY16E
2,779
468
3,247
52,283
11,612
63,896
FY17E
3,112
515
3,627
58,557
12,774
71,331
18,816
18,816
24,819
24,819
19,681
19,668
Source: Company, MOSL
21 September 2015
5

Container Corporation
Financials and valuations
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
Terminal & Other Service Charges
Personnel Expenses
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT after EO Exp.
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Less: Mionrity Interest
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY11
38,992
4.5
26,664
889
1,284
28,836
74.0
10,156
26.0
1,489
8,667
49
1,971
10,589
1,825
17.2
0
8,764
8,764
12.7
22.5
FY12
41,009
5.2
28,125
1,018
1,634
30,776
75.0
10,232
25.0
1,621
8,611
54
3,135
11,692
3,036
26.0
0
8,657
8,657
-1.2
21.1
FY13
44,450
8.4
30,891
1,093
1,969
33,953
76.4
10,497
23.6
1,763
8,734
32
3,326
12,027
2,721
22.6
0
9,306
9,306
7.5
20.9
FY14
53,167
19.6
36,214
1,459
3,971
41,644
78.3
11,523
21.7
2,357
9,167
220
3,583
12,529
3,072
24.5
15
9,443
9,443
1.5
17.8
FY15
61,493
15.7
41,706
1,976
3,792
47,474
77.2
14,019
22.8
4,108
9,911
183
3,470
13,198
2,638
20.0
14
10,546
10,546
11.7
17.1
FY16E
63,896
3.9
45,598
2,054
3,418
51,070
79.9
12,826
20.1
3,831
8,995
183
3,681
12,492
2,920
23.4
14
9,558
9,558
-9.4
15.0
FY17E
71,331
11.6
50,904
2,293
1,687
54,883
76.9
16,448
23.1
4,196
12,251
183
4,081
16,149
3,230
20.0
14
12,905
12,905
35.0
18.1
(INR Million)
FY18E
79,891
12.0
57,012
2,568
1,098
60,679
76.0
19,212
24.0
4,582
14,631
183
4,797
19,245
3,849
20.0
14
15,382
15,382
19.2
19.3
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Deferred Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
FY11
1,300
48,088
49,388
0
2,428
471
52,286
33,683
9,722
23,961
1,069
1,956
30,705
125
296
22,961
7,323
5,545
1,173
2,828
1,544
25,161
140
52,286
FY12
1,300
54,252
55,552
0
2,616
581
58,749
35,856
11,268
24,588
1,041
2,447
37,009
367
303
27,576
8,764
6,515
1,222
3,513
1,780
30,494
178
58,749
FY13
1,300
60,905
62,205
0
2,964
385
65,553
40,780
12,946
27,834
1,884
3,690
38,930
554
285
29,460
8,632
7,006
1,683
3,325
1,997
31,925
221
65,553
FY14
1,950
66,628
68,578
275
3,262
1,480
73,595
51,254
17,560
33,694
2,402
4,836
41,751
182
621
27,742
13,206
9,284
1,919
5,632
1,733
32,467
196
73,595
FY15
1,950
73,220
75,169
911
2,310
1,650
80,040
59,595
22,835
36,760
3,946
4,882
44,363
503
647
29,492
13,722
10,147
2,169
6,117
1,861
34,217
235
80,040
FY16E
1,950
79,891
81,840
911
2,310
1,650
86,711
65,406
26,666
38,740
8,385
4,882
46,289
541
673
31,217
13,859
11,820
2,334
6,356
3,131
34,469
235
86,711
(INR Million)
FY17E
1,950
88,898
90,848
911
2,310
1,650
95,719
71,505
30,862
40,643
12,336
4,882
51,416
581
751
36,086
13,997
13,793
2,508
7,095
4,191
37,623
235
95,719
FY18E
1,950
99,634
101,584
911
2,310
1,650
106,455
77,974
35,444
42,530
15,867
4,882
58,656
643
841
43,035
14,137
15,716
2,773
7,947
4,997
42,940
235
106,455
21 September 2015
6

Container Corporation
Financials and valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Working Cap. Turnover (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
FY11
67.4
78.9
380.0
15.5
26.8
FY12
66.6
79.1
427.4
16.5
28.8
FY13
71.6
85.2
478.6
17.5
28.5
FY14
48.4
60.5
351.7
12.5
30.3
28.5
22.8
3.9
4.6
21.1
0.9
8.1
14.4
19.2
0.7
1.2
4.3
19.3
32.4
4.5
0.0
FY15
54.1
75.2
385.5
13.6
30.2
25.5
18.4
3.6
3.9
17.2
1.0
11.7
14.7
18.2
0.8
3.0
3.8
19.0
28.0
4.4
0.0
FY16E
49.0
68.7
419.8
12.3
30.2
28.1
20.1
3.3
3.7
18.7
0.9
5.8
12.2
15.8
0.7
3.1
3.8
18.7
18.6
3.9
0.0
FY17E
66.2
87.7
466.0
16.6
30.2
20.8
15.7
3.0
3.3
14.3
1.2
25.1
14.9
18.6
0.7
3.0
3.8
18.0
7.9
3.7
0.0
FY18E
78.9
102.4
521.0
19.8
30.2
17.5
13.5
2.6
2.8
11.9
1.4
35.9
16.0
19.9
0.8
2.9
3.8
17.8
(0.4)
3.7
0.0
1.1
29.6
19.0
22.8
0.7
1.2
2.8
16.1
20.6
5.5
0.0
1.2
42.0
16.5
22.2
0.7
3.3
2.7
15.9
26.0
5.7
0.0
1.3
25.0
15.8
20.3
0.7
4.5
2.3
19.9
20.2
5.6
0.0
Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(inc)/dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
Others
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
FY11
10,589
1,489
-1,477
-2,225
-1,460
6,916
17
6,933
-3,081
3,851
1,565
-1,550
49
-46
-2,349
0
-2,346
3,036
19,925
22,961
FY12
11,692
1,621
-2,539
-2,000
-1,066
7,708
14
7,722
-2,267
5,455
1,939
-828
110
-48
-2,342
0
-2,279
4,615
22,961
27,576
FY13
12,027
1,763
-2,977
-2,142
425
9,095
8
9,104
-5,858
3,246
2,681
-4,422
-196
-33
-2,568
0
-2,798
1,884
27,576
29,460
FY14
12,529
2,357
220
-2,597
-2,645
9,864
-3,137
6,727
-5,145
1,582
3,616
-4,609
-584
-238
-3,086
73
-3,835
-1,717
29,460
27,742
FY15
13,199
4,108
183
-3,653
1,058
14,896
-3,232
11,664
-9,376
2,288
2,996
-6,424
167
-189
-3,130
-339
-3,490
1,749
27,742
29,492
FY16E
12,492
3,831
-3,498
-2,920
1,473
11,378
0
11,378
-10,250
1,128
3,681
-6,569
0
-183
-2,887
-14
-3,084
1,725
29,492
31,217
(INR Million)
FY17E
16,149
4,196
-3,898
-3,230
1,716
14,934
0
14,934
-10,050
4,884
4,081
-5,969
0
-183
-3,898
-14
-4,095
4,870
31,217
36,086
FY18E
19,245
4,582
-4,614
-3,849
1,631
16,995
0
16,995
-10,000
6,995
4,797
-5,203
0
-183
-4,646
-14
-4,843
6,949
36,086
43,035
21 September 2015
7

Container Corporation
Corporate profile: Container Corporation
Company description
Container Corp of India Ltd (CCRI) is a leading rail
freight transporter that is graduating to be a
multimodal logistic player. It is set to benefit from
GDP/EXIM revival and DFCs completion that will
accelerate containerization. Despite private players
entry in 2006, it has a leading market share (76%)
that can be attributed to its scale and vantage
locations. Long term growth acceleration could
come from its pre-emptive capex on multimodal
parks.
Exhibit 12: Sensex rebased
Exhibit 13: Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-15
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
61.8
5.0
29.8
3.4
Mar-15
61.8
6.9
26.3
5.0
Jun-14
61.8
6.4
26.5
5.3
Exhibit 14: Top holders
Holder Name
Aberdeen Global Indian Equity Mauritius Ltd
Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund
Government of Singapore Investment -Corporation
% Holding
3.5
3.5
2.1
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 15: Top management
Name
Anil Kumar Gupta
Designation
Chairman & Managing Director
Exhibit 16: Directors
Name
Anil Kumar Gupta
Arvind Bhatnagar
Manoj K Akhouri
P Alli Rani
M P Shorawala*
Name
Sudhir Mathur*
Pradeep Bhatnagar*
V Kalyana Rama
N Madhusudana Rao
Yash Vardhan
*Independent
Exhibit 17: Auditors
Name
Kumar Vijay Gupta & Co
Type
Statutory
Exhibit 18: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY16
FY17
FY18
MOSL
forecast
49.0
66.2
78.9
Consensus
forecast
57.6
67.9
73.7
Variation
(%)
-14.9
-2.5
7.1
21 September 2015
8

Container Corporation
NOTES
21 September 2015
9

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Container Corporation
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CONTAINER CORP OF INDIA
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