15 October 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Technology
BSE SENSEX
27,010
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. INR b / USD b
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val INRm/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,180
MTCL IN
83.7
102.8/1.6
1589 / 870
-2/13/33
282/214
86.3
MindTree
CMP: INR1,403
TP: INR1,400
Neutral
Blockbuster growth; sanguine deal wins; yet commentary on 2H muted
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2015 2016E 2017E
35.6
7.1
5.4
63.9
18.6
29.4
32.8
21.9
15.2
46.1
8.4
6.1
73.1
14.5
27.9
31.3
19.2
13.4
56.3
10.9
7.8
93.2
27.5
29.3
34.4
15.0
10.0
239.5 285.4 349.6
Strong revenue beat…:
MTCL’s 2QFY16 revenues at USD180.3m were higher than
our estimate of USD172.5m. Excluding the revenues from acquisition of Bluefin
and Relational Solutions, organic revenue growth stood at 8.1% QoQ, which was
higher than our expectation of 5.4%. That said, in a stance similar to INFO’s MTCL
remains muted in terms of its expectations for 2H, despite USD105m wins in
Digital, which see a quicker conversion to revenues.
…drove recovery in profitability:
EBITDA margins expanded 90bp QoQ to 18.5%,
in line with our estimate of 18.4%. During the quarter, the impact of wage hikes
was offset by INR depreciation, and operational efficiency. PAT at INR1.58b grew
14.5% QoQ, in line with our expectation, led by lower-than-expected forex gains.
Digital continues to drive:
MTCL saw 9.6% growth in digital revenues, which now
constitute to 36.6% of total revenues. Deal wins reflected continued strength in
digital; which contributed USD105m of the USD193m TCV.
Seasonality to weigh on 2H:
On account of seasonal weakness, and furloughs,
MTCL expects 3Q revenue growth to be soft. It indicated that USD revenue growth
would be higher than what it was in 3QFY15 (0.5% QoQ). With lower revenue
growth, part impact of wage hikes, and not factoring any currency benefits, it
expects margins to sequentially decline in 3Q.
Inching estimates higher:
We have increased our revenue estimates for
FY16E/FY17E by 2.6%/2.8%, to factor in higher organic growth momentum in 2Q
and visibility from deal wins. Our earnings estimates for FY16E/17E are up by
0.4%/2.9% to INR73.1/INR93.2, mainly on the back of revenue upgrade. Our price
target of INR1,400 discounts FY17E EPS by 15x. MTCL currently trades at 19.2x/
15x FY16E/17E EPS. While it remains our most preferred company in terms of
fundamentals within tier-II IT, we remain
Neutral
on valuations.
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585