26 October 2015
Update | Sector: Metals
NMDC
Sell
BSE Sensex
27,362
S&P CNX
8,261
CMP: INR98
TP: INR81 (-17%)
Reduction in freight and export duties makes exports
viable
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val (INRm)
Free float (%)
But will be short-lived as we expect IODEX to fall to USD40
NMDC IN
3,964.7
174/90
-3/-23/-41
376.6
5.9
312
20.0
Indian government recently made two changes to facilitate NMDC export iron
ore—rail freight reduced by ~INR1,500/t (Exhibits 2 and 3) and duties on
exports to Japan/South Korea reduced from 30% to 10%.
Exports now viable, but will still be margin dilutive
NMDC has signed an MoU with steel mills in Japan and Korea to supply ~16.5mt
iron ore by March 2018. Annual supply can fluctuate between 3.8mt and 5.3mt.
NMDC did not export a single ton during 1HFY16 due to high export duties and
freight levies. Under the revised freight & duty structure, the company will
generate a positive contribution on export volumes. We estimate incremental
revenue of ~INR751/914 per ton on fines/lumps (Exhibit 1:). Since the variable
costs are low at ~INR200/t, we expect an EBITDA per ton of INR550/714 on
fines/lumps; this implies an average EBITDA per ton of ~INR600/t on iron ore
exports at IODEX of USD51/dmt, which is lower than the EBITDA per ton of
INR884/t for domestic sales during 3QFY16E. If IODEX were to fall to USD40/t,
the EBITDA per ton on exports will be close to nil.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
123.6 61.8 59.9
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
77.8
65.9
16.6
20.8
20.8
5.9
1.2
2.6
29.7
31.5
7.9
14.8
14.7
12.3
1.2
7.1
25.8
27.1
6.8
8.6
8.6
14.3
1.1
9.3
3.1 -52.2 -13.8
EBITDA accretive at IODEX of USD51, but exports unviable at USD40
NMDC has a production capacity of ~34mtpa in Chhattisgarh (~7mtpa added in
1QFY16 with commissioning of 11B). Due to domestic oversupply, the
production is well below its potential. Hence, exports, although margin dilutive,
will be EBITDA accretive. As of now, we are not upgrading volumes because we
expect IODEX to soon fall to USD40/dmt—a level at which exports will become
unviable once again. Further, there is a risk to domestic realization on rising
domestic supply. Recently, Odisha increased volume limits from 57mtpa to
75mtpa.
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-15 Mar-15
Promoter 80.0
DII
FII
12.5
4.0
80.0
11.8
4.9
Jun-14
80.0
10.2
7.0
Others
3.5
3.3
2.8
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Expect more pressure on iron ore prices; maintain Sell
We expect iron ore (China cfr) prices to drop to ~USD40/t. Seaborne iron ore
supply is expected to grow by 80mtpa (~20mt from Goa, ~5mt from NMDC,
~55mt from Roy Hill); this is over and above the planned expansions of BIG4
(BHP, Rio, Vale, FMG), who are targeting production cost of USD15/t. With
dwindling Chinese crude steel production, we expect prices to come under
pressure.
NMDC is struggling to sell because of aggressive competition from private
mines and its margins have also come under pressure. Capital allocation to low-
RoI INR165b steel project and INR100b slurry pipeline and pelletization projects
will drag return ratios and force cut in dividend per share. We value the stock at
INR81/share based on SOTP valuation; maintain
Sell.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.