28 October 2015
3QCY15 Results Update | Sector: Cement
BSE SENSEX
27,226
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val(INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,240
ACEM IN
1,983.2
323.5/5.0
287/192
-4/-11/-7
478
49.7
Ambuja Cements
CMP: INR209
TP: INR245 (+18%)
Upgrade to buy
Operations in line; valuation comfort improves; upgrade to Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Dec
2015 2016E 2017E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
94.9 108.3 127.5
15.3 21.7 30.4
9.5 14.9 21.0
7.5 10.6
22.6 41.2
96.6 102.9
10.1 10.6
14.1 15.1
57.6 40.3
16.6
1.3
12.2
134
11.8
1.2
8.4
123
Adj. EPS (INR)
6.1
EPS Gr. (%)
-28.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
66.1
RoE (%)
9.3
RoCE (%)
13.4
Payout (%)
92.4
Valuations
P/E (x)
34.1
P/BV (x)
3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.9
EV/Ton (USD)
142
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
-4-5%
Volume growth dichotomy declined:
ACEM’s 3QCY15 revenue was marginally
below estimate at INR20.9b (-4.2% YoY). Volume growth was in line at 4.9mt
(+2% YoY v/s UTCEM at +4% YoY). Uptick in realizations (+2% QoQ) was below
expectation and was largely contributed by north and west.
Cost moderation boosts EBITDA (in line):
EBITDA de-grew 22% YoY to
~INR2.94b (in line), translating into EBITDA margin of 14.1% (-3.2pp QoQ and -
0.6pp YoY). Lower uptick in realizations was offset by cost savings in RM and
other expenses (decline in gypsum and packaging cost) and moderation in
freight cost (benefits of softening diesel price). PAT was down 35.8% YoY to
INR1.53b (v/s est. of INR1.73b), led by lower other income.
DMF-adjusted EBITDA up 7% QoQ:
EBITDA/ton stood at INR601 (v/s est. of
INR585). In 3QCY15, ACEM provided for DMF of INR82/ton (including prior
period impact of INR55/ton); adjusted for the same, EBITDA/ton stood at
INR656 (-17% YoY, +7% QoQ).
Valuation comfort improves; upgrade to Buy
ACEM corrected 27% from the peak versus average correction of 13% in large
caps, led by muted earnings (weak north and west) and elusive timeline over
corporate restructuring.
We expect ACEM to lag volume growth leaders due to limited expansion, but
profitability is likely to normalize on the back of better pricing and demand
outlook in north and west (Gujarat). While there is little clarity on timeline and
form of restructuring (with ACC and Lafarge) at present, ACEM will be
considered on its strength (strong B/S, cost leadership, and healthy capital
efficiency) once it is resolved.
Post the recent corrections, valuation comfort in ACEM is higher than peers.
ACEM at 10.9x 1-year forward EV/EBITDA is 12% below the 5-year average.
EV/ton basis is at USD130/ton—11% discount to 5-year average (only large cap
trading below the 5-year average EV/EBITDA). We value ACEM at USD160/ton
(10x CY17E EV/EBITDA) at INR245/share (18% upside). Upgrade to
Buy.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.