29 October 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Emami
BSE SENSEX
27,251
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD
b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
22.2
5.4
4.9
21.4
20.7
54.2
44.9
44.0
49.1
19.4
27.2
7.5
6.0
26.5
24.0
69.0
43.1
36.9
39.6
15.2
33.0
9.2
7.6
33.7
26.9
86.8
43.2
34.5
31.2
12.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
S&P CNX
8,235
HMN IN
227.0
238.2/3.7
1368 / 705
-11/14/39
217
27.3
CMP: INR1,050
TP: INR1,350 (+29%)
Buy
Mixed performance, seasonality impacts organic revenue growth
Emami’s 2Q16 performance was mixed bag
with 17.4% sales growth to INR 5.7b
(est. INR6.2b) and underlying domestic volume growth of 13.5%. Overall volumes
were up 12.6% while like to like volume grew mere 1%, impacted due to
seasonality in Oils and Balms portfolio (45% of business in 2Q) and overall market
sluggishness. EBITDA posted healthy 34.5% growth to INR1.5b (est. INR1.6) and
Adjusted PAT grew 33% YoY to INR1.2b (est. INR1.1b).
Domestic sales grew 19.5% YoY
while International business posted sales growth
of 11.5% and CSD segment sales were flat. Kesh King posted revenues of INR 520m
and contributed 10% to revenue growth; however up-stocking by earlier
distributors which resulted in higher inventory in trade has impacted the brand’s
performance. Given the high inventory in market, it has also impacted the pricing
discipline as few distributors are selling at lower price to the trade vs. Emami, this
trends should stabilize in another 2 months, as per management.
Gross margin expanded 440bp YoY to 70.6%
led by benign input costs, benefit of
Kesh King sales and price increases taken in certain products of the portfolio.
However higher ad spends (up 100bp YoY) curtailed EBITDA margin expansion to
340bp YoY to 26.5% (est. 25.7%).
Portfolio Performance:
Zandu HCD, Boroplus Antiseptic Cream and Fair and
Handsome posted 45%, 16% and 10% growth while Navratna Cooling Oil and
Balms sales grew 0% and 3% resp. HMN maintained its market shares across key
brands and expanded Navratna cooling oil market share by 560bp YoY.
Valuation & View:
Though 2Q16 organic revenue performance was impacted by
seasonality, we continue to like Emami given its strong medium term earnings
visibility post the Kesh King acquisition (45% EBITDA margin business turning EPS
accretive in 2nd year). Emami’s track record of driving synergies from Zandu
acquisition gives us conviction on the potential upside from Kesh King over next 3-
4 years. Scale up of Health Care business is also on track with strong growth
delivery. It remains amongst our top ideas given the strong earnings visibility and
potential to address larger size of prize. Stock trades at 39.6x and 31.2x FY16 and
FY17E EPS, Maintain BUY rating with target price of 1350 (37x Sep’17 EPS).
FY16
2Q
13.5
5,746
17.4
1,690
4,056
70.6
2,533
44.1
1,523
26.5
34.5
103
191
129
1,358
139
10.2
1,217
32.9
609
638
FY15
3QE
11.0
8,536
23.3
2,518
6,018
70.5
3,124
36.6
2,894
33.9
36.8
114
181
138
2,736
512
18.7
2,224
21.1
625
1,597
4QE
11.0
7,016
26.7
2,277
4,739
67.5
2,650
37.8
2,089
29.8
48.9
127
181
138
1,918
359
18.7
1,559
12.9
625
932
11.8
22,173
21.8
7,752
14,420
65.0
9,020
40.7
5,400
24.4
22.4
356
139
1,006
5,912
1,070
18.1
4,841
20.5
0
4,841
FY16E
12.6
27,196
22.7
8,501
18,695
68.7
11,193
41.2
7,502
27.6
38.9
444
587
598
7,070
1,049
14.8
6,021
24.4
2,000
4,021
(INR Million)
FY16
Var.
2QE
(%)
11.0
6,169
-6.9%
26.0
1,968
-14.1%
4,201
-3.4%
68.1
2,616
-3.1%
42.4
1,585
-3.9%
25.7
40.0
103
181
15
1,316
3.2%
196
14.9
1,120
8.7%
20.7
625
493
Quarterly Performance
Y/E MARCH
Vol ume Growth (%)
Net Sales
YoY Cha nge (%)
COGS
Gross Profit
Gros s ma rgi n (%)
Other Expendi ture
% to s a l es
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
YoY Cha nge
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Amorti za ti on
Reported PAT
E: MOSL Es ti ma tes
1Q
12.5
4,817
25.6
1,858
2,959
61.4
2,209
45.9
750
15.6
26.7
44
8
223
921
213
23.1
708
16.7
0
708
FY15
2Q
11.5
4,896
20.4
1,655
3,241
66.2
2,109
43.1
1,132
23.1
29.6
102
13
149
1,165
250
21.5
915
14.5
0
915
3Q
11.0
6,923
18.4
2,267
4,656
67.3
2,541
36.7
2,115
30.6
19.7
99
45
338
2,309
472
20.4
1,837
21.9
0
1,837
4Q
12.0
5,537
24.2
1,973
3,563
64.4
2,161
39.0
1,403
25.3
18.9
110
73
297
1,516
135
8.9
1,381
21.5
0
1,381
1Q
15.0
5,899
22.4
2,016
3,883
65.8
2,886
48.9
997
16.9
32.9
99
43
185
1,039
39
3.8
997
40.7
126
877
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029/
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.