Automobiles

CMP: INR2,549

Bloomberg

Equity Shares (m)

M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)

52-Week Range (INR)

1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)

Financial & Valuation (INR b)

Y/E March

Sa l es

EBITDA

NP

Adj. EPS (INR)

EPS Gr. (%)

BV/Sh. (INR)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

Pa yout (%)

Valuations

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

Di v. Yi el d (%)

20.4

7.8

2.4

16.2

6.4

10.3

2.7

14.3

5.3

9.2

3.1

2015 2016E 2017E

275.9 286.2 315.2

35.4

25.0

125

18.4

328

41.1

57.3

57.8

44.4

31.5

157

26.0

401

43.3

60.4

51.1

48.5

35.7

179

13.6

483

40.5

55.3

51.4

Sector Update | 3 November 2015

Automobiles | Update

TP: INR2,862 (+12%)

Buy

Oct-15 in-line; Highest ever monthly sales

HMCL IN

199.7

509/7.8

3,272/2,252

3/0/-13







Market share in scooters up to 20% (v/s 13% MoM)

HMCL’s Oct-15 volumes up 11% YoY (5.4% MoM), to 639,802 units (in-line).

We estimate flat growth for FY16, implying residual growth of 4.7% or ~555k units per

month.

Scooter sales at 108,000 units in October 2015 up 82% YoY (71% MoM) driven by

newly launched Maestro Edge and Duet. Market share in scooter at 20% v/s 13% in

September.

The stock trades at 16.2/14.3x FY16/17 EPS of ~INR157/179. Maintain Buy.



EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4

Snapshot of volumes for October 2015

Oct-15

Total volume

Oct-14

YoY (%)

11.3

Sep-15

606,744

MoM

FY16-YTD

(%)

5.4

FY15-YTD

Chg

(%)

FY16

estimate

Resi- Residual FY16 YTD

YoY

dual Gr. Monthly Monthly

(%)

(%) Run rate Run rate

0.0

4.7 554,533

551,458

639,802 575,056

3,860,206 3,982,708

-3.1 6,632,873

Source: Compa ny, MOSL

Jinesh Gandhi

(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416

Jay Shah

(Jay.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701

3 November 2015

Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

1

Motilal Oswal research is available on

www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,

Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

AUTO GALLERY

COMPANIES

COMPANIES

SECTOR UPDATES

Automobiles | Update

NOTES

3 November 2015

3

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Automobiles | Update

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