9 November 2015
2QFY16Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
BSE SENSEX
26,265
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INRb)/(USDb)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
AvgVal,INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,954
SUNP IN
2,406
1994/29.2
1201/799
-9/11/-2
4226
45.3
Sun Pharma
CMP: INR804
TP: INR950 (18%)
Buy
In line result; margin tailwinds ahead
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr (%)
BV/Sh(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2015 2016E 2017E
273.7
78.1
47.4
19.7
50.8
106.5
21.5
25.7
40.8
7.5
280.7
79.7
48.2
20.1
1.7
118.0
17.9
20.3
40.1
6.8
324.0
103.7
73.0
30.4
51.4
141.3
23.4
27.7
26.5
5.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
SUNP’s 2Q PAT at INR11b was in line estimates helped by higher gross margins,
which offset higher other expenses and taxes during this quarter. 2Q revenues
declined 15% YoY to INR68b, in line with our estimates, primarily affected by
continued supply constrains at Halol facility and muted India/ROW performance.
EBITDA margin at 28% (v/s est 26%) registered 310bp sequential improvement,
with minimal Ranbaxy related cost during this quarter.
Capacity constrains at Halol continue to hurt top line growth:
2Q revenues at
INR68b (up 4% QoQ) were in line with our estimates. However, (a) supply
constraints at Halol (b) weak domestic sales (up 1%YoY), (c) currency impact in
RoW business (down 16%YoY) and (d) higher base of last year (with Diovan sales)
resulted into 14%YoY decline. US business also included USD40m one off sales
that was non-recurring in nature. We expect growth to rebound from 4QFY16, on
the back of key drug launches like gGleevec (USD 80-100m) and normalization of
Halol supplies.
With minimal Ranbaxy cost, margins stabilized at 28%:2Q
EBITDA margins at 28%
(est. 26%) were driven by 343bp QoQ jump in gross margin and saving in staff cost
(dropped 1.5% QoQ).R&D spend at 7% of sales was also down 70bp QoQ.
However, going ahead, it is expected to remain high on the back of increased
filings of complex generics and clinical trials of MK-3222. We believe, excluding the
impact of lower utilization levels at Halol plant, base margins are likely to be at 30-
31% for Sun pharma post Ranbaxy merger. Uptick from synergies (USD 300m in
FY18E) and niche US launches would lift EBITDA margin to 34-35% in FY18E
implying 19% EBITDA CAGR.
Earnings call takeaways:
(a) SUNP has already site-transferred Gleevec from
Halol, (b) To realize Ranbaxy related merger synergy much ahead of time, (c) Halol
remediation is on track and expects re-inspection in near term, (d)MK-3222 is
likely to be filed in CY17.
Valuation and view:
We have largely maintained our EPS estimates in FY16/17E.
Halol resolution remains a big overhang for the stock. However, at CMP, risk
reward is favorable as SUNP trades at 26x on FY17E and 19x on FY18E EPS
(discount to 3 yr average). We reiterate
Buy
with target price of INR950 (27x
Sep’17E P/E, in line with 3 year avg P/E).
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.