9 November 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
BSE SENSEX
26,121
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,915
ARBP IN
584.0
499.9/7.5
861/ 491
12/32/72
1,679
46.1
CMP: INR856
TP: INR1,050 (22% upside)
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (Rs)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
121.2 142.8
25.6
16.2
27.7
21.7
36.4
28.2
30.8
9.7
32.7
21.1
36.2
30.4
34.5
29.7
23.6
7.0
169.0
40.6
27.7
47.4
31.2
166.3
33.0
31.0
18.0
5.1
88.3 121.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
ARBP’s 2QFY16 adj. PAT of INR4.9b (up 23% YoY) was in line with our estimates,
primarily driven by higher US and ARV sales. EBITDA at INR7.7b (up 22% YoY) beat
our expectations by 5% on improved margins (23.3% v/s 21.4% est). We believe
strong pace of approvals in the US and improving profitability of EU business is likely
to drive overall margins and earnings growth for the company.
Better business mix in 2Q:
The revenue growth at 16%YoY was in line with estimates,
driven by US and ARV formulations sales. Strong traction in Natrol franchise and
consistent product launches (~15-17) over last two quarters led to 26%YoY growth in
US business. ARV business reported 95%YoY growth on the back of higher
participation in new tender supplies (4
th
straight quarter with growth in excess of
30%). However, the acquired EU biz remained flat YoY, affected by steep currency
depreciation in 2Q. Overall, the company has given guidance of 13 product launches
in the US over next two quarters and is likely to maintain the strong growth
momentum going ahead. The company has 196 pending ANDA approvals that are
likely to unfold over next 3-4 years. It also includes niche products like Injectables,
Penems, peptides and controlled substances that are likely to drive top line growth
(36% CAGR) over FY15-18E.
EBITDA margins to expand over next 3 years:
EBITDA margin at 23.3% beat our
estimates by 115bp, as company saved cost in other expenses with improving
leverage. We expect EBITDA margin to increase to 25% in FY18E from 21% in FY15E,
as a) ARBP continues to launch niche products in the US, and (b) EU & ARV business
profitability improves.
Execution of injectable portfolio and improving profitability to lead to re-rating:
At
CMP, ARBP trades at 23.6x FY16E and 18.0x FY17E— at 15-20% discount to sector
average. Going ahead, valuation gap is expected get narrow on the back of increasing
profitability and strong free cash flows generation. As a result, we expect higher ROE
to sustain over FY16-18E. We maintain
Buy
rating on the stock with a target price of
INR1,050 (20x Sep’17E EPS).
In line result; US and ARV key growth drivers
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.