9 November 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Capital Goods
Voltas
BSE SENSEX
26,121
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,915
VOLT IN
330.7
98.9/1.5
360 / 227
3/3/17
712
69.7
CMP: INR275
TP: INR345 (+25%)
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2015 2016E 2017E
51,831 54,657 63,207
4,100 4,216 5,972
3,381 3,512 4,826
10.2
37.5
64
16
21.9
22.6
3.6
10.6
3.9
71
16
15.2
26.2
3.9
14.6
37.4
82
19
18.1
18.8
3.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Operating performance below expectations; UCP sales disappoint
2QFY16 performance below expectations:
Revenue grew 7.9% YoY to INR10.6b (our
estimate: INR10.7b). EBITDA declined 20% YoY to INR623b (our estimate: INR743m).
Adjusted net profit declined 11% YoY to INR446m (our estimate: INR593m).
UCP
segment reported revenue decline of 9% YoY to INR3.1b. Room air conditioner
volumes were weak due to erratic weather and the commercial refrigeration
segment too was subdued. Adjusted for one large order in commercial refrigeration
(Rs0.15b), UCP sales were down 5% YoY. EBIT margin was 11.3% v/s 12.4% in
2QFY15. VOLT maintains its market leadership, with 20.8% share.
EMP
segment reported revenue of INR6.2b, up 18% YoY led by improvement in pace
of execution of three large projects (two international and one domestic). EBIT
margin was 1.7%; this is the sixth consecutive quarter of positive EBIT in the EMP
business. Importantly, capital employed corrected meaningfully from INR8b in
2QFY15 to INR5.8b in 2QFY16 (stable QoQ). Thus, asset turn improved from the lows
of 3.1x in 2QFY15 to the present 3.9x.
Project business witnesses weak order intake; book-to-bill ratio at 1.6x:
Order inflow
was down 49% YoY at INR2b. Drop in oil prices, increased competition, unviable
commercial terms and muted business environment have impacted order inflow. Order
book stands at INR36.6b and is down 2% YoY. Book-to-bill stands at 1.6x down from
1.9x in 1QFY16.
Maintain earnings; retain Buy:
We maintain Buy with a revised SOTP-based price
target of INR345 (UCP business at 25x FY17E EPS, MEP at 20x, and engineering products
at 20x). We expect growth rates in UCP business to rebound in the medium term, led
by (i) possible inflexion point in the AC segment, (ii) pent-up demand in FY16, and (iii)
incremental growth from air coolers. VOLT trades at 26x FY16E and 19x FY17E EPS.
Ankur Sharma
(ankur.vsharma@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449
Amit Shah
(amit.shah@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.