10 November 2015
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Media
SITI Cable Network
BSE SENSEX
25,743
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float
S&P CNX
7,783
SCNL IN
678.3
23.7/0.4
39 / 25
-4/-5/31
24
34.0
CMP: INR31
TP: INR48 (+53%)
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA#
Adj. NP
Adj.EPS (INR)
2016E 2017E 2018E
11.6
3.2
1.3
0.2
0.3
15.4
3.9
2.6
0.3
0.5
71.3
4.6
11.5
8.7
9.4
20.4
6.6
6.0
2.5
3.7
660.2
8.8
55.7
24.2
8.5
5.0
Adj.EPS Gr (%) NA
BV/Sh (INR)
4.0
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
7.5
8.7
110.4 64.4
EV/EBITDA(x)* 10.9
* Based on attributable EBITDA and subs
post minority stake; # (ex-activation)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Subscription beats estimates; box seeding picks up; recurring EBITDA in line
EBITDA (ex-activation) in line:
SCNL’s EBITDA (ex-activation) was largely in line at
INR234m, primarily led by a gradual pick-up in subscription revenue.
Subscription growth at 7% QoQ beats estimates, activation picks up:
SCNL
reported a resilient 7% QoQ growth in subscription (INR1.39b v/s estimate of
INR1.36b) v/s 2% QoQ for Hathway and decline of 3% QoQ for Den Networks.
SCNL has changed its accounting for the carriage/content deal with India Cast to a
‘net of carriage’ basis. Consequently, while carriage revenue on a reported basis
declined 17% QoQ to INR0.60b, the deal was largely EBITDA-neutral. Broadband
revenue grew 50% YoY/3% QoQ to INR93m. Activation revenue grew 78% QoQ to
INR194m, as seeding of boxes picked up in 2Q.
Phase I/II collections largely flat; content deals for Phase III tied up:
Realizations
in Phase I/II have been largely flat at INR103/INR76; the management expects
improvement to INR110/INR90 by March 2016. All major content deals for Phase
III/IV (Zee, Sony, Colors) have been negotiated on a fixed-fee basis.
Box seeding picks up:
SCNL seeded 0.33m set-top boxes in 2Q, taking boxes
seeded in 1HFY16 to 0.53m (Hathway/Den Networks seeded 0.07m/0.35m in 2Q).
Inventory as on 2QFY16 stood at ~0.5m and an order of 3.5m boxes is already
placed.
Subscriber addition guidance maintained; net debt at INR10.4b:
During FY16,
SCNL is targeting digital cable subscriber addition of ~5m and broadband addition
of 0.2m. The company had earlier given a gross capex guidance of ~INR10b (net
capex of ~INR5.5b). Current gross/net debt stands at INR12.4b/INR10.4b.
98% underlying EBITDA CAGR over FY15-18; maintain Buy:
We expect the digital
subscriber base to increase from 5.4m in FY15 to 11m in FY18. Increase in net
subscription income in the post-digitization scenario should drive ~98% recurring
EBITDA CAGR, with EBITDA (ex-activation) expected to improve from ~INR0.8b in
FY15 to ~INR6b in FY18. SCNL trades at EV/EBITDA (ex-activation/ minorities) of
27.6x/13.6x/5.5x FY16E/FY17E/FY18E. Our EBITDA estimates are largely
unchanged. Maintain
Buy
with a DCF-based price target of INR48 (unchanged).
(INR Million
FY15
1Q
2,090
47.5
1,748
342
19.6
16.4
290
304
20
-231
70
-30.4
-301
16
-317
-317
2Q
2,192
36.7
1,780
412
35.7
18.8
309
296
45
-147
-3
1.9
-144
85
-229
-229
3Q
2,217
34.2
1,734
483
110.6
21.8
387
299
18
-185
-26
13.9
-160
84
-243
-204
4Q
2,560
9.7
2,466
94
-56.1
3.7
339
311
227
-328
125
-38.1
-454
-112
-342
-342
1Q
2,281
9.1
1,924
357
4.4
15.7
358
339
24
-316
5
-1.7
-322
28
-349
-371
FY16
2Q
2,342
6.8
1,913.8
428
4.0
18.3
367
343
87
-195
35
-17.8
-229
48
-277
-277
3Q
3,218
45.2
2,133.8
1,084
124.7
33.7
429
343
50
363
20
5.5
343
47
296
296
4Q
3,730
45.7
2,370.9
1,359
1,345.9
36.4
602
348
38
448
23
5.1
425
-97
522
522
FY15
9,059
7685
1,374
15.2
1,328
1,209
311
-852
167
-19.6
-1,019
72
-1,091
-1,091
FY16
11,572
8,340
3,231
27.9
1,756
1,372
199
303
83
27.5
220
26
194
194
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Sales
YoY (%)
Opera ti ng Expens es
EBITDA
YoY (%)
EBITDA ma rgi n (%)
Depreci a ti on
Interes t
Other Income
PBT
Ta x
Effecti ve Ta x Ra te (%)
PAT
Mi nori ty Interes t
Adj PAT
Reported net profit
Shobhit Khare
(Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Jay Gandhi
(Jay.Gandhi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3089 6693
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.