Sector Update | 19 November 2015
Financials
Please refer our detailed report
AGIC 2015
Financial Deep Dive - Mumbai
MUDRA loans – USD20b cash flow based lending
Non-collateralized lending; focus on micro and small entrepreneurs
Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency (MUDRA) has been established as a
subsidiary of SIDBI to refinance small business loans under the Pradhan Mantri Mudra
Yojana (PMMY). The PMMY is a scheme intended to promote new entrepreneurs
(funding ~58m small business units by providing loans up to INR1m at lower costs).
Access to finance in conjunction with rational price is the unique customer value
proposition of MUDRA.
Our interactions with bank managements suggest that GoI’s thrust on this segment,
refinancing at lower rate and proposed credit guarantee scheme should help increase
disbursements (INR400b in FY15). GoI’s intent is to provide risk capital to micro and
small entrepreneurs. Success of the scheme depends upon proper risk evaluation by
the financial institutions. High disbursements by state-owned banks (PSBs) just to
fulfill GoI targets remain a risk.
GoI has set a target of INR1.2t disbursements in FY16 (3x increase)
v/s
~INR400b disbursed to the target audience (loans below INR0.1m in target
segment) in FY15. If achieved, this is expected to lead to ~15% of
incremental non-food credit growth for banks in FY16. However, as of
October 2015, ~INR402b has been disbursed under these schemes, implying
~20% of non-food credit growth (April-October).
Top five banks account for ~40% of overall disbursements,
with CBK
leading the market share chart (~12% share) followed by SBI Group and
HDFCB (~10% each). Loans disbursed under MUDRA category (less than
INR1m for specific category) do not automatically qualify for refinancing, as
an important condition is lending at BASE RATE (for banks), 3.5% and 6%
spreads at the Mudra refinancing rate for RRBs/Co-operative banks and
NBFCs resp., and cap of 10-12% (as per RBI) for MFIs.
Additional funding source for non-banks; refinancing limited so far by
banks:
Given moderate loan growth and restriction to lend at BASE RATE
(risk adjusted returns are not good), we expect limited refinancing from
banks, especially private banks. MUDRA scheme opens up additional
funding avenues for NBFCs and MFIs apart from bank loans, CPs, bonds,
securitization, etc. Of the refinancing of INR200b expected in FY16.
RIDF to be used as source for funding; pricing also determined:
RBI would
provide INR200b line of credit from the priority sector lending (PSL)
shortfall of banks, which would then be used as a refinancing facility for
MUDRA loans. Funding under the MUDRA schemes would be collateral-
free. Refinance rate would vary from ~6.7% for banks to 10-12.25% for
NBFCs / MFIs. However, overall spreads are capped at 3%. Of the funding
taken from RBI (RIDF bonds-related), higher share of incremental
refinancing is done to NBFCs and MFIs.
Important developments in ensuing quarter: As per press note (Source:
Ministry of Finance)
currently, MUDRA operates as an NBFC registered
under RBI. However, MUDRA Bill is proposed to be tabled in parliament,
which is likely to enable its conversion into MUDRA Bank. It is also proposed
to make MUDRA Bank the regulator for the MFI industry. For further details
please refer Page #7.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Dhaval Gada
(Dhaval.Gada@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report, Motilal Oswal
research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.