HCL Technologies
BSE SENSEX
24,480
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,435
HCLT IN
1,409.3
1,181.7 / 17.5
1058 / 798
3/0/15
2,000
39.4
19 January 2016
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR839
TP: INR1,000(+19%)
Buy
1HCY16 visibility alleviates headcount concerns
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Jun
2015 2016E* 2017E
Net Sales
370.6 310.5 492.2
EBITDA
87.0
67.9 109.9
PAT
71.1
56.0
87.1
EPS (INR)
50.4
39.6
61.6
Gr. (%)
11.7 -21.3
55.5
BV/Sh (INR)
177.0 201.5 241.7
RoE (%)
31.7
21.1
28.1
RoCE (%)
33.9
22.8
32.1
P/E (x)
16.7
21.3
13.7
P/BV (x)
4.8
4.2
3.5
*FY16 is Estimates are for 9 months and
hence growth not comparable
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
In-line 2Q, strong 1HCY16 visibility:
HCLT’s 2QFY16 CC revenue growth of 2.1%
QoQ was in line with our estimate (and ~1.7% QoQ CC organic), but lopsided in
nature—contributed mainly by Americas (+5.5% QoQ CC), BPO (+8% QoQ CC),
Retail/CPG (+10.3% QoQ CC) and Public Services (+8.4% QoQ CC). The concern
around second successive quarter of decline in headcount was partially offset
by expectation of strong revenue growth in 1HCY16, visibility for which is lent
by 8 IMS deals approaching steady state in 3QFY16 (v/s 2 in 2QFY16)
Margin expansion to accompany 1HCY16 traction:
Going forward, EBIT margin
should move to the targeted 21-22% band v/s 20.3% in 1H (excluding 1Q one-
off). Multiple IMS deals reaching a steady state will drive profitability up, along
with further rationalization in G&A costs.
2Q profitability in line; one-time asset sale drives net income beat:
EBIT
margin (excluding one-off in 1QFY16) was down 60bp QoQ to 20%, in line with
our estimate of 20.2%. PAT was INR19.2b (+5.3% QoQ), a healthy beat to our
estimate of INR17.8b (-2.6% QoQ)—driven by one-time asset sale, which
contributed ~INR1.4b to other income.
Valuation view:
HCLT’s EBIT margin guidance of 21-22% for FY16 and outlook
of IMS-led healthy growth in 1HCY16 offset a slow start to the year. Over the
medium to long term, HCLT’s capabilities in IMS, Engineering and Continental
Europe are likely to keep the company in good stead—the key risk will be the
unfolding competitive intensity. We expect the company to post a 15%
revenue CAGR and 17% EPS CAGR over FY16-18. Maintain
Buy
with a one-year
price target of INR1,000, which discounts forward EPS by 15x.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585