Reliance Industries
BSE SENSEX
24,480
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,435
RIL IN
3,239.2
3,375 / 50.4
1,090/797
9/13/32
418.9 / 0.4
54.8
20 January 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
CMP: INR1,044
TP: INR1,092(+5%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E
Net Sales
3,291
2,701
EBITDA
316.0
406.3
PAT
227.2
276.8
EPS (INR)
70.2
85.4
Gr. (%)
3.2
21.7
BV/Sh INR
738.5
819.3
RoE (%)
11.0
12.1
RoCE (%)
10.2
11.5
P/E (x)
14.9
12.2
P/BV (x)
1.4
1.3
Reliance Industries’ (RIL) reported largely in-line 3QFY16 EBITDA at INR103b (43% YoY
and 5% QoQ), and PAT at INR72b (42% YoY and 10% QoQ). Higher other income at INR23b
(+42% QoQ) led by profit on sale of investments was partly negated by higher tax rate at
24.4%. GRM was in line at USD11.5 (v/s est 11.6), supported by efficient crude sourcing
and higher petchem margins. Core projects are largely on track for full commissioning in
FY17. RIL indicated that telecom business will be launched in next few weeks/months,
but did not give any specific timelines. Jio service trials are on full swing and indicate that
early feedback is positive. FY17 will be a big year for RIL with >USD34b core and non-core
projects start commissioning.
2017E
2,678
494.4
318.6
97.3
13.8
901.1
12.6
11.9
10.7
1.2
GRM in line; Petchem beats expectations:
3QFY16 GRM at USD11.5/bbl (+58%
YoY, +9% QoQ) boosted by shift in crude sourcing away from Brent-linked crude,
and higher product cracks. Refining EBIT stood at INR63b (+98% YoY, +17% QoQ).
Petchem EBIT at INR26b (+18% YoY, +3% QoQ) with EBIT margin at 14.4% was
supported by strong polymer segments and sale from polyester expansion. KG-D6
gas production declined ~7% QoQ to 10.6mmscmd.
Jio ready for roll out; Core projects largely on track
Full scale telecom commercial launch soon:
We are impressed by Jio
disclosures and believe it could disrupt data as well as voice market given its
non-legacy infrastructure (>INR1t capex) and zero dependence on voice. With
current trial runs with >60K RIL employees, expect full commercial launch soon.
Core USD17b capex largely are on track.
With 85% spent till date, core projects
largely on track for full commissioning by end 2016. RIL remains confident on
economics of petcoke gasification, ethane sourcing and off-gases cracker
projects.
Consolidated net debt stayed flat
at INR863b from INR870b in 2QFY16.
Organized retail
reached 3,043 stores in 371 cities. Sales at INR60b (+29% YoY,
+19% QoQ), EBITDA of INR2.4b (+7% YoY, +16% QoQ) and EBIT margin of 2.4%.
Valuation and view:
On FY17E basis, the stock trades at 9.7x adj. EPS of INR107
and EV/EBITDA of 7.5x. SOTP-based target price stands at INR1,092/share.
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.