20 January 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
24,062
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,309
IHFL IN
426.2
820 / 518
4/11/32
1315
76.4
CMP: INR689
Indiabulls Housing Finance
TP: INR907 (+32%)
Buy
Business momentum remains healthy; spreads and asset quality stable
Indiabulls Housing Finance’s (IHFL) PAT grew 26% YoY and 9% QoQ to INR6.04b (in
line with est. of INR5.9b). Strong AUM growth of 29.5% YoY, stable asset quality
and book spreads of 320bp were the key highlights of the quarter.
Disbursements growth (+21% YoY) and lower repayments (5.9% YoY) drove AUM
up 29.5% YoY to INR622b. However, the mix will gradually change in favor of
housing loans—will increase from the existing 51% to 60% over the next two years;
LAP and LRD would be 20% each.
NII growth remained healthy at +26% YoY on the back of 320bp of book spreads
and 300bp incremental spreads, aided by reduction in cost of funds. Overall cost of
funds stood at 9.4% whereas incremental borrowing cost was under 9%. GNPAs
remained stable sequentially at 0.83% v/s 0.86% in 3QFY15 and credit cost stood
at 62bps v/s 67bp in FY15- PCR stood at 141% v/s 139% in 2Q16.
Other highlights:
a) Apart from CRISIL, ICRA, has started grading IHFL’s LAP book.
b) Due to uncertain market conditions, IHFL has shored up the cash levels to
INR140b and would keep it at high levels for next 2-3 quarters. c) ZCBs have come
down sharply and forms 3.1% of borrowings v/s 4.5% last year- wont issue further
ZCBs. d) Sold loans of INR10.4b during the quarter and INR29.15b in 9MFY15. e)
Reduction in risk weights has increased CAR by 170bps.
Valuation and view:
IHFL’s transformation from a diversified lender to a focused
mortgage player has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving from 3%/0.8% in
FY09 to +26%/3.5% in 9MFY16. Focus on mortgage and market share gains will
drive AUM growth of 24% for the next three years. IHFL is among the lowest-
levered HFCs (4.3x) to support growth. Asset quality trend is likely to remain
stable. Improved borrowing profile, better credit rating and liquidity buffer will aid
the company maintain healthy spreads. De-risked business model, superior
profitability and +5% dividend yield warrant premium. The stock is trading at PBV
of 2.3x FY17E. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR907 (3x FY17E PB).
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 293.7/4.3
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E March
Net Fin inc
PPP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. INR
RoA on AUM (%)
2016E 2017E 2018E
31.6
35.3
54.5
2.0
274
3.4
25.4
57.8
12.6
2.5
2.5
4.6
40.0
44.5
67.6
24.0
302
3.3
23.4
50.0
10.2
2.3
2.3
4.9
47.9
53.2
82.0
21.3
336
3.2
25.7
50.0
8.4
2.0
2.0
5.9
RoE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
P/ABV (x)
Div. Yield (%)
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com) /
Harshvardhan Agrawal
(Harshvardhan.Agrawal@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.